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40 days to go until November 3rd General Election and what do we know?

by | Sep 24, 2020

By Dave Andrusko

As you would expect, each day, as get closer to a genuinely historic Presidential Election, the action grows hotter and more intense. That is, unless you are pro-abortion former Vice President Joe Biden…

Here’s some of today’s headlines and some additional thoughts.

*“Breaking: Biden calls lid for the day at 9:26 am ET; Update: Ninth half-day this month?”—Ed Morrissey

*“The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows that 52% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Forty-eight percent (48%) disapprove” Rasmussen Reports 

*“Not only does Trump lead Biden in Florida among seniors (age 65+) but also among voters aged 18-49”—a tweet from pollster Frank Luntz [@FrankLuntz]

*“So what does it mean [polls showing Trump narrowly up in Florida and Arizona]? First of all, it shows the importance of polling likely voters. Most polls that are taken months ahead of an election focus on registered voters. That’s fine; at that point, it can be difficult to determine who is most likely to vote on election day. But as the race nears, there are more polls of likely voters, that is, people who show the signs — past voting activity, in particular — of being very likely to actually cast a vote in November. And sometimes, when the focus is on likely voters, the results look a bit different”—Byron York, Washington Examiner

*“Other metrics beyond polls should also be noted as they cast a favorable glow on Trump’s chances of reelection. How about crowds and enthusiasm? Trump rallies are back, attendees lining up the day before, the venue full and many more watching from the overflow area. In contrast, Biden ‘rallies’ consist of a half-dozen reporters sitting widely spaced apart in painted circles”– Brian C. Joondeph

And

*“‘Something’s in the water’: Florida Republicans see surge in voter registration”POLITICO

Let’s consider what these stories are telling us. Hot Air’s Ed Morrissey wrote that with today’s end of the day before 10 am, “That makes nine part or full days off from making news this month. That would be notable in a primary; in a general election, with its compressed three-month window, it’s inexplicable.”

But, as they say, this is no accident. When he leaves his basement, the former vice president looks, at best, lethargic. Mr. Biden makes statements that are also “inexplicable.” I’ve been  told that repeating them borders on elder abuse, so I won’t. But it is frightening (regardless of your politics) to consider that this man is running to become the most powerful man in the world come January 20, 2021.

Likewise, it is no accident that Mr. Biden meets only with pre-selected reporters who are allowed no—no—follow up questions. Out of their desire to defeat President Trump, these reporters never shout questions out at him—which is one major reason they were chosen in the first place.

President Trump’s job approval numbers continue to be around 50%; today’s Rasmussen Report number is 52%. Other openly hostile polling sources are finally conceding that President Trump’s  job approval numbers are moving closer and closer to 50%.

Much, and I do mean much, attention is being focused on Florida, an absolutely essential battleground state for President Trump. As Byron York observed, “Back in July, the RealClearPolitics average of polls had Biden up by eight percentage points in Florida.” 

Pollster Frank Luntz, referring to the Washington Post/ABC News survey published this week showing Mr. Trump up 51-47 in Florida, observed that the President was ahead in two demographics we’d been told were trending decidedly against him: seniors and voters aged 18-49. 

More about Florida. Republican voter registration has surged, according to POLITICO’s Marc Caputo and Gary Fineout. 

[A] concerted drive by President Donald Trump’s Florida campaign to register voters has helped cut the state’s long-standing Democratic advantage to fewer than 185,000 voters, a gap of just 1.3 percentage points, according to data from the Florida Division of Elections released this week. …

In 2016, Democrats had a 327,000 voter-registration edge over Republicans, when Trump won the state by a little more than a point. Now the GOP has reduced that Democratic advantage by 44 percent.

And the reasons why mirror what Democrats in other states have publicly worried about. But one stands out: Absence of a ground game. 

With Biden, my understanding is that with [campaign manager] Jen O’Malley Dillon, there’s a feeling that the ground game is not important. And I think that’s a miscalculation where I hope I’m wrong. Registration is part of the ground game,’’ said [Kira] Willig, who leads the progressive group Our Revolution in Miami and volunteered for Obama, Clinton’s 2016 campaign and Andrew Gillum’s 2018 bid for governor.

One final thought.  The contrast between the President, who is thriving as he holds one rally after another, and Mr. Biden, who is barely visible, is striking. In my opinion, this is enormously telling.

Stay tuned. More tomorrow.

By the way, are you registered to vote?

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