NRL News

41 days to go until November 3 General Election and what do we know?

by | Sep 23, 2020

By Dave Andrusko

Please be sure to read the several other posts today in which we investigate the slurs hurled at the President and at one of his potential nominees to the Supreme Court. Today’s headlines include…

*“The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday… shows that 50% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Forty-nine percent (49%) disapprove”Rasmussen Reports

* “Trump takes lead over Biden in Florida and Arizona: Polls”—headline this morning in Washington Examiner

* “A new web tracker has discovered that the Trump presidential campaign has spent far more on Facebook ads than the Biden campaign. Frank Sesno, the former CNN anchor and George Washington University professor, drew our attention to the New York University Ad Observatory. It said that President Trump has outspent Biden 2-1. Why Facebook? The site said nearly 70% of the public uses the social media site, many to get their news”—Paul Bedard

*The result in Florida befits its swing-state status, with sharp differences across regions and demographic groups. A challenge for Biden is his tepid 13-point lead among Hispanics in the 2 state (using registered voters for an adequate sample size); Hillary Clinton won Florida Hispanics by 27 percentage points in 2016, yet narrowly lost the state. Trump also does better than elsewhere in Florida among college-educated whites – though far better still with their noncollege counterparts”—Sunbelt battlegrounds could hold key to 2020 election outcome

And [pay no attention to the headline. See explanation below.]

* “Democrats worry Feinstein can’t handle Supreme Court battle: Colleagues fear the oldest senator may struggle to lead Democrats on the Judiciary Committee”POLITICO

Lots and lots to think about. We start with Rasmussen Reports which (quite correctly) said following the 2016 election, “Rasmussen Reports told you all along that it was a much closer race than most other pollsters predicted. We weren’t surprised Election Night. They were.” Today, again, President Trump’s approval ratings are at 50%.

Speaking of being ahead of the curve, Rasmussen Reports has consistently had the President’s job approval numbers higher—sometimes much higher—than the Trump haters. Now, they are coming in line with the President’s job approval numbers in the 45%-48% range.

No secret that Florida and Arizona are key “battleground states.” Note the difference between registered voters (less accurate) and likely voters (more accurate). This is from Jennifer Jacobs, Senior White House reporter for Bloomberg News:


Wapo/ABC poll shows Trump slightly ahead in FL and AZ: Florida: —likely voters 51% TRUMP, 47% Biden —registered voters 47% Trump, 48% BIDEN. 

Arizona: —likely voters 49% TRUMP, 48% Biden —registered voters, 47% Trump, 49 BIDEN. Sept. 15-20 @sfcpoll

You will rarely go wrong if you use opinion about which candidate the public most trusts to handle the economy as a key index of voter sentiment. This is from Langer Research in its analysis of the poll it conducted for the Washington Post/ABC News:

ISSUES – The economy stands out as key to Trump’s competitiveness. Even in the midst of a pandemic-fueled recession, registered voters in Florida trust Trump over Biden to handle the economy by 11 points, 52-41 percent, and in Arizona by 15 points, 56-41 percent.

In the Washington Post story you find that 39% of Hispanics in Florida say they would vote for/lean toward voting for President Trump. The numbers in Arizona also cut against the media narrative. There 34% of Hispanics say they would vote for/lean toward voting for President Trump []. And, finally,

Poor pro-abortion Sen. Dianne Feinstein about whom unnamed “senators and aides” supposedly are fretting “whether the California Democrat is capable of leading the aggressive effort Democrats need against whoever President Donald Trump picks to replace the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.”

This is the same Senator who just two years ago pulled correspondence out of a hat which proved to have zero credibility but were so super-charged it put the nomination of now Justice Neil Kavanaugh in jeopardy. Think she can’t pull out another baseless allegation against whomever President Trump nominates to replace the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg?

Besides, has anyone forgotten the ugly smear she tossed at Judge Amy Coney Barrett at a 2017 hearing? That “the [Catholic] dogma lives loudly within you.”

Naw, Sen. Feinstein will handle her assigned duties as the ranking Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee—lambast, harangue, and excoriate the Trump nominee—just fine.

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Categories: Politics