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15 days to go until November Elections. What do we know?

by | Oct 19, 2020

By Dave Andrusko

For starters we know that every President Trump positive—his relentless and cheerful campaigning–will be turned into a negative by the media, and every Biden negative—he’s back hiding again—will be treated as pure statesmanship.

So, what else is new?

Beyond piling on by the media, which is as old as it is vicious, there’s actually a  lot new and plenty to be encouraged about.

Here are our daily headlines and further information.

*”The hidden factors that could produce a surprise Trump victory”David Siders

*”Though a majority of Latino voters favor Democrats, Hispanic men are a small but enduring part of Trump’s base. Those supporters see him as forceful, unapologetic and a symbol of economic success”Jennifer Medina

*”After beating coronavirus, President Donald Trump has returned to the campaign trail with a vengeance, traveling to nine different states and holding at least one rally with supporters every night”Charlie Spiering 

*“Voter registration numbers have also shown more positive signs for the Republicans. In Pennsylvania, for example, a blue-leaning state that Trump won by 44,292 votes in 2016, the Republican Party has since picked up nearly 200,000 voters. JPMorgan says the gains suggest Trump could win the state by a margin of more than 240,000 in the upcoming election.

“Similar progress in battlegrounds Florida and North Carolina suggest Trump may take those states by a larger margin than in his first campaign as well. JPMorgan also believes a surge in the number of registered Republicans will tighten the race in New Mexico, but that the state will still go with Biden. On the flipside, a growing number of registered Democrats in Arizona will make the state close, but Trump should prevail”Nick Arama

*“Latest “Party Affiliation” data from Gallup shows Republicans slightly overtaking Democrats:

Republicans: 28%

Democrats: 27%

Independents 42%

Last Republican lead was pre-Covid–Feb 28—Poll Watch[@PollWatch2020]

As we’ve discussed, here are arguably the two most important items to remember as we approach November 3. 

(1) The internal media battle between its resolve to elect Joe Biden president and what is obviously already becoming a much more competitive race than they want to admit but will be forced to acknowledge so as not to look like complete idiots when President Trump wins.

(2) What Jason Miller, Trump senior advisor, told Bill Hemmer last Friday. That at Trump rallies 13%-22% of attendees didn’t vote in 2016 and that “we have assembled the greatest turnout operation in U.S. political history.”

Last week there were plenty of Democrats saying the race is much closer than the polls would say. Cynics say this is flying under a false flag: they don’t believe it for a second but don’t want to lose because supporters became overconfident.

Could be, but the evidence suggests they have reason to be worried.

As David Siders observed, “Republican registration has ticked up in key states at the same time Democratic field operations were in hibernation. Democratic turnout is surging in the early vote. But it’s unclear whether it will be enough to overcome an expected rush of ballots that Republicans, leerier of mail voting, will cast in person on Nov. 3.” 

In addition, “There is uncertainty, especially, about younger voters, who are returning ballots at a slower rate than older ones,” Siders writes. “That is typical, wrote Michael McDonald, who directs the Elections Project, in an analysis of the early vote last week. Still, he said, ‘I predict in the coming weeks the Democratic narrative will change from euphoria over the apparent large leads in early voting to concern that a disproportionately large number of younger voters have yet to return their mail ballots.’”

Biden has been told for months it’s his election to lose—that the election is all about President Trump, so the less Mr. Biden shows up, the more likely the focus will remain on the President. This is flawed on multiple grounds—and I do mean multiple grounds.

Part of that cruise control mentality is that until very recently, Democrats were not out in the field. They assumed running ads and sending literature would be enough. That is a disastrous miscalculation, akin to Hillary Clinton not campaigning in key states that she wound up losing by tiny margins.

Two other items, of what could be ten more.

First, if you are the head of various Latino organizations organized by or working  in conjunction with the Biden campaign, you’ll hear the same themes famous Hollywood Latinos are saying: that the 30%-40% of Latinos who may well wind up voting for President Trump don’t realize they are “voting against their own interests.” 

It’s a campaign cliché that pro-abortion Democrats trot out every election: Group “X” [fill in the blank] is too stupid to know what’s best for it. This is condescending almost beyond belief. 

Second, just as there were “Reagan Democrats” in 1980, there will be a massive number of “Trump Democrats.” Don’t forget, as the New York Times ruefully conceded in 2016, a number of voters who pulled the lever for Democrat Barack Obama in prior elections switched to Republican Donald Trump. Judging by the number of self-identified Democrats who’ve attended Trump rallies in 2020, that number can only go up.

Trump rallies are best known for their size and incredible enthusiasm. And as senior campaign advisor Jason Miller told Fox News’ Bill Hemmer last Friday,13%-22% of attendees didn’t vote in 2016. That is an enormous untapped pool of voters.

I almost forgot something very important. In July—just three months ago–Democrats enjoyed an 11-point advantage (50% to 39%]  in party affiliation. But in the latest Gallup polls, 28% identify as Republicans to 27% who identify as Democrats.

Keep tuned to NRL News Today and encourage your friends to sign up here. This election is going down to the wire.

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