NRL News

18 days out from November 3rd. What do we know?

by | Oct 16, 2020

By Dave Andrusko

We have a separate post on how the two Townhall meetings were conducted.  No one could honestly say they were surprised by the verbal assault launched against President Trump or the cozy treatment former vice President Joe Biden received. But there are some aspects worth pondering.

What follows are headlines and a few words about what’s behind them. Again, as always, don’t pay any attention to what the talking heads are telling you. This presidential race will go down to the wire. There are many reasons for optimism.

*“Our new @trafalgar_group

#2020Election #BattlegroundState #MIpoll conducted Oct 11-14 still shows a  thin Trump lead: 

46.5% : @realDonaldTrump; 45.9% @JoeBiden”Robert C. Cahaly

*“Trump will need to do in 2020 what he did in 2016 — campaign hard in these battleground states and win them. But the numbers show he’s polling slightly better in these battleground states right now than he was at this time in 2016. He’s on track — in the media’s own polls — to do well in the Electoral College”Molly Hemingway

*“Meanwhile, actual mail-in and early voting data from key battleground states conflict with the Democratic narrative and Biden’s purported lead in the polls. In Michigan, the former vice president allegedly enjoys a 7.2 percent lead over President Trump. In Wisconsin, Biden purportedly enjoys a 6.3 percent lead over Trump in the polls. In Ohio, our erstwhile VP allegedly has a lead of 0.6 percent over the president. None of these leads has manifested itself in mail-in voting, where Democrats should have an advantage, nor in early voting at the ballot box. The Washington Examiner reports that, in all three of these crucial states, the Republicans are either keeping pace or actually ahead”—David Catron

*“What we do know is that if you compare the mid-October polling averages in key states in 2016 with the election results about three weeks later, you see Trump moved the gap between himself and Clinton in his favor across the board: In Florida he beat the mid-October polls by 5 percentage points. In Michigan, by 10.9 percentage points. In North Carolina by 6.6 percentage points. In Pennsylvania by 9 percentage points. In Wisconsin by 7.4 percentage points. In Ohio by 9.6 percentage points.

If he gains similar ground again in each state in 2020, he’ll win them all and a second term. The animating issues and the national mood are quite different this year, of course. I’m not saying history is going to repeat itself. I’m saying don’t for a second think this race is over”Eric Zorn


Numbers from YouTube only for last night’s townhalls: 6.7 million Trump, 3.1 million Biden–Kevin McCullough [KMC Radio].

Did I mention don’t pay attention to the commentariat? Well, also scrutinize any poll you come across carefully.

“Allahpundit” is an unnamed columnist for HotAir and a confirmed hater of President Trump. He posted yesterday a very thoughtful analysis of what makes the Trafalgar polling company so unique. 

He begins, “They’re the firm that called Trump’s wins in Michigan and Pennsylvania four years ago when nearly every other pollster was predicting Clinton victories, some by blowout margins. (Trafalgar was the only outfit to find Trump ahead in Michigan in any survey taken that year.)” 

Most of Allahpundit’s observations are based on a conversation between Robert Cahaly [Trafalgar’s lead pollster] and Mike Pesca of Slate.  While noting some of the numbers from battleground states are almost a month old, Allahpundit writes that the latest Trafalgar numbers are:

Florida: Trump by two
Pennsylvania: Biden by two
Wisconsin: Biden by three
North Carolina: Trump by two
Michigan: Trump by one
Ohio: Trump by four
Arizona: Trump by four

Eric Zorn is a Democrat-favoring columnist for the Chicago Tribune. He is smart enough to understand (fear) that we may be seeing a repeat of 2016: the mirage of Hillary Clinton’s solid “lock” on the presidency.

Two other conclusions we might draw. 

First, Democrats have placed an inordinate amount of faith in having an advantage in mail-in ballots and/or early balloting. The former is rife with possibilities for honest mistakes, the latter Republicans are, to date, holding their own. 

Second, Nielsen says it will have numbers for each of last night’s townhalls after 4:00pm. But the early numbers—from Facebook only—show a huge lead for President Trump’s cage match with Today’s Savannah Guthrie over George Stephanopolous’s hand-in-hand with Joe Biden. 

No one can know now, but I wonder what the audience watching President Trump being treated not only rudely but disrespectfully will come away thinking? 

Hold fast. The pro-abortion-to-the-core elites are desperate to persuade you Joe Biden is our next President. We have 18 days to prove them wrong.

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Categories: Politics