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5 days to go until November 3. What do we know?

by | Oct 29, 2020

By Dave Andrusko

Other than the narrowing of the polling gap between pro-life President Donald Trump and pro-abortion former vice president Joe Biden, nothing was more predictable than those pundit who months ago decided Biden was in like Flint would begin to hedge their bets.

Not—not—that they would suddenly acknowledge we have a horserace. Rather they just throw in a few qualifiers such as “you know elections are funny” or “who knows how COVID-19 will affect the overall total of votes cast” or “hmmm, maybe it wasn’t such a great  idea after all to put so much emphasis on early voting when the potential for people to muck it up is considerable.”

Here are some headlines that explain why the pollsters are suddenly sounding so much more wishy-washy.

*“Poll: Biden holds narrow lead among Florida Hispanics”Telemundo poll released today as reported in POLITICO

*“The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows that 52% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Forty-seven percent (47%) disapprove”Rasmussen Reports

*“Oh My: Two Polls Put Trump In Range In … Minnesota”Ed Morrissey

*“President Trump returning to Minnesota in final swing through the Midwest: The Rochester rally will mark Trump’s fourth visit to Minnesota”— Anthony Gockowski

*“Are Democrats Heading for a 2020 Bloodbath?”Matt Vespa

 *“A smart analysis published yesterday by David Wasserman, at the Cook Political Report, found that state polling in 2016 and 2018 underestimated Republicans’ strength in the Midwest and Florida and underestimated Democrats’ strength in the Southwest.”—“Into the Unknown,” by Lisa Lerer, NY Times

*Dems pivot to urge in-person voting after emphasis on vote-by-mail”David Sherfinski


*“Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election #BattlegroundState #WIpoll conducted Oct 24-25 shows undecided shrinking and a razor thin Biden lead: 47.5% @JoeBiden,47.1% @realDonaldTrump”– Robert C. Cahaly

My favorite quote of all comes from Lisa Lerer of the New York Times: “At this point, I’m thinking less about polling averages and more about a few key variables that we can’t predict.” Suddenly, polling data isn’t the be-all and end-all. Talk about a signal from the heart of the Media Establishment.

But Lerer regains her footing by quoting from a “Smart analysis” from the Cook Political Report, which concludes

But in light of recent evidence, it wouldn’t be all that surprising if Biden defies polls by winning a higher share of the vote in Arizona than Wisconsin — or breaks through in Texas more than he does in Ohio.

More in Arizona than Wisconsin? If that’s true, Mr. Biden is in a terrible fix. Likewise if there are better odds he’ll break through in Texas than in Ohio, that is every grimmer news: Biden is not going to carry Texas.

Beyond that, what tentative conclusions can we draw from all this?

#1. While Biden fiddles with his mask in his basement, President Trump is appearing all over the country at massive rallies. The Biden campaign is all-in on campaigning “virtually” which is “actually” stupid. There are many people who are either undecided or having second (and third thoughts). They cannot help but be impressed by a President who seems to be inexhaustible.

As Anthony Gockowski  of Alpha News wrote, Mr. Trump’s trip to Rochester, Minnesota will mark his fourth visit to a state he lost by a whisker in 2016.  In my humble opinion,  Minnesota is the dark horse state.

Likewise, Dave Boyer of the Washington Times reported that after making three stops in the pivotal state of Pennsylvania on Monday, President Trump will hold three more rallies on Saturday.

The man is everywhere.

In addition to avoiding virtually all door-to-door canvassing, the other major wager made by the Biden campaign was to convince people to vote early by mail. However, as The Washington Times’ David Sherfinski wrote, “Democrats are furiously scrambling to tell their voters to cast ballots in person, rather than by mail, saying neither the U.S. Postal Service nor the courts can be trusted, after spending months emphasizing vote-by-mail as a safe and easy option during the coronavirus pandemic.” 

It is difficult to exaggerate how potentially catastrophic a decision that may turn out to be. Republicans, according to every poll, say they are largely voting in person on November 3.

I threw in Matt Vespa’s *“Are Democrats Heading for a 2020 Bloodbath?” not because I necessarily expect it to occur, but to tweak the host of pundits who are predicting glory days for the Democrats.

Finally (and there are at least six or seven other items we could discuss), you cannot exaggerate—literally, not figuratively—the importance of the Telemundo poll of Hispanics in Florida. We’ve written about President Trump’s appeal to Hispanics over and over. But….

“Biden leads Trump among Hispanics by just 48-43 percent, numbers that could mean trouble for the former vice president in the nation’s biggest swing state,” writes Sabrina Rodriquez.  Trump received “54 percent of the Cuban-American vote, according to 2016 exit polls. Now, he is leading among them by 71 percent to 23 percent, according to the new poll.”

Of course, the article must insist this tells us nothing about the Hispanic vote elsewhere, particularly in the key state of Arizona.

To that end, Brad Coker, the pollster for Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, who conducted the poll “cautioned that the new poll numbers in Florida, which has a highly diverse Hispanic community, don’t offer much insight into Biden’s performance among Hispanics elsewhere,” according to Rodriquez. Which misses the whole point. 

Whatever the final percentage is, there is every reason to believe President Trump will do much better in the Hispanic community than he did in 2016. 

Have you voted yet? If you haven’t—or if your pro-life family and friends haven’t—be sure to help us pull an upset we are told that would be even greater than 2016 by taking part in what is, after all, our civic obligation.

Categories: Politics