NRL News

6 days to go until November 3. What do we know?

by | Oct 28, 2020

By Dave Andrusko

Please take a few moments out and read Jacki Ragan’s, “The Power of One ~ You!”. I asked her to write something that would appear both in our Monday through Saturday National Right to Life News Today and in our last issue of National Right to Life News, which will go out Friday morning. As always, I left reading Jacki’s post fired up and ready to work non-stop through November 3.

A lot of people—but not single-issue pro-lifers—were conned into believing that pro-abortion former vice president Joe Biden was a sure thing—that there was no way (as had Hillary Clinton four years ago) he could possibly lose when the polls showed he and his stridently pro-abortion running mate Sen. Kamala Harris so far ahead.

Photo: Gage Skidmore

Guess what? The Biden campaign is counting on the billionaires who have directed untold millions into his campaign to drag Mr. Biden across the finish line. Meanwhile, President Trump is attracting massive crowds, jubilant and determined not to allow a genuinely radical, pro-abortion Democrat Party to have its titular head in the White House.

Here are today’s headlines and some additional thoughts. (Psst. There is good news everywhere.)

*“More importantly, it’s [“Trump House” in Latrobe, Pennsylvania] a place where Trump supporters meet others who share their political views. It’s a place where people who have never voted can find the necessary papers to register. It’s a place where registered Democrats who want to change to the Republican Party can get it done. And now, it has become an important indicator of the intensity of Trump support in perhaps the most important battleground state in the 2020 election”—Byron York, Washington Examiner — “Another sign of intensity for Trump in Pennsylvania.”

*“The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 52% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Forty-seven percent (47%) disapprove”Rasmussen Reports

*“Many Latino Men Are Supporting President Trump This Election”NPR’s Leila Fadel

*“The surveys show Biden narrowly ahead of Trump among likely voters in Michigan by 51 percent to 44 percent, with Libertarian Party nominee Jo Jorgensen at 3 percent”—Washington Post

*”Ann Arbor sees decrease in early student voting on UM campus after stay-in-place order”

*”Why Trump’s re-election still seems likely”Matthew Walther


*”Troubling for Mr. Biden in a different way is the fact that he has not yet matched Mrs. Clinton’s share of support in Philadelphia proper. Averaging the results of the two recent polls, he has the backing of 73 percent of Philadelphia voters, down from 83 percent for Mrs. Clinton in 2016. According to the Times/Siena poll, Mr. Trump was supported by 24 percent of Philadelphians, nine points ahead of his exit poll numbers in 2016”Giovanni Russonello, The New York Times

I began with a quote from Byron York about outstate Pennsylvania and ended with a quote from the New York Times about a major urban area in Pennsylvania for an obvious reason: that state is crucial to President Trump’s re-election and changes there may well be representative of changes elsewhere.

In reverse order, The New York Times piece—by Giovanni Russonello—tries to make the case that Democrats learned their lesson in 2016 and will not allow Pennsylvania, whose governor is a former Planned Parenthood volunteer “escort” to slip away.

But (a) Russonello acknowledges there are 5%-10% undecided and (b) that Biden’s support in Philadelphia is considerably beneath Clinton’s. Trump is estimated to receive 24% the vote in Philadelphia, numbers that were taken before the latest disturbances.

Byron York’s story is an example of on-the-ground reporting at its best. It is a must read. 

The major takeaway for me is that the grassroots support for Trump outstate is organic: ordinary citizens who are saying, “Not on our watch.”

For example, Leslie Rossi is the owner of Trump House and helped him carry the state by just 44,000 votes in 2016. York writes

Now, with the president running for a second term, there’s a different vibe at the Trump House. Rossi’s work is no longer to persuade doubting voters to give Trump a chance. Instead, she is providing a place for Trump supporters from all over Pennsylvania to meet and see that there are in fact a lot of other Trump supporters out there. “It’s so different now,” said Rossi. “They like coming here because they feel so connected. They are so proud of their president. They get to come here and celebrate him — their movement — with like-minded people.”

As we have harped on for months, one major reason “Why Trump’s re-election still seems likely” is Trump’s commitment to a systemic, non-stop ground game. Matthew Walter writes

Apart from his incumbent status and the enthusiasm of his most fervent supporters, who love him as no president has been loved since Kennedy or perhaps even FDR, the best thing Trump has going for him is the fact that he has an actual ground game. His campaign has been knocking on doors, a million a week, and doing all the other boring things that Biden fans are glad to have an excuse for ignoring this year. (As more than one observer has pointed out, a ground game matters, even in California, where Republicans were able to take back former Rep. Katie Hill’s seat in a special election earlier this year.)

By the way, to be sure, the numbers come from the Republican Party, but according to them, a considerable percentage of people who attend the Trump rallies are Democrats, “low intensity” voters, and/or people who sat out the 2016 election. And Walter is absolutely 100% on the mark when he tells us the passion of Trump’s “most fervent supporters” is something to behold.

Another subject we have discussed a dozen times or more is the Latino vote. Even NPR—of all outlets—wrote a piece headlined, “Many Latino Men Are Supporting President Trump This Election.” And “many” is an understatement. Leila Fadel cites a poll reported on in the New York Times

David Leonhardt is happy to tell us that “Among Latina women, Biden leads Trump by a whopping 34 percentage points (59 percent to 25 percent).”

But he is less enthusiastic when he concedes

Among Latino men, Biden’s lead is only eight points (47 percent to 39 percent). These patterns are similar across both Latino college graduates and those without a degree. Stephanie Valencia, the president of Equis Research, which focuses on Latino voters, told us that its polls suggest that Latino men may have even moved slightly toward Trump this year.

“Slightly”? Hardly. Moreover, other polls suggest there is a continuing movement of Latino men in President Trump’s direction. And to be fair to Giovanni Russonello, his account does not depend on snark. He is straightforward, unlike Leonhardt who, in scrambling for an explanation, condescendingly links to a colleague’s story that infantilizes Latino men who dare to support Trump.

There is much, much more, as usual. President Trump’s approval numbers remain above 50%, and he is catching up quickly in Michigan. With fewer college students expected to vote in Michigan this year, the Biden campaign is losing an audience that is considered very much in his corner.

Be sure to read Jacki Ragan’s story and Byron York’s story. They will make your day.

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Categories: Politics