By Dave Andrusko
It’s been three days since we last discussed the fast moving presidential contest–and are things moving rapidly. And I don’t mean just Joe Biden’s galactic faux pas where he said, “We have put together, I think, the most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics.”
Remember, as always, the crux of the discussion over whether pro-life President Donald Trump will prevail over the pro-abortion former vice president is the “battleground states.”
Here’s a headline from the New York Times about Texas, which most people do not believe Biden has a serious chance of carrying, but may have enormous significance for states such as Florida and Arizona which are highly competitive:
“With Weakness Among Hispanic Voters, Biden Trails in Texas”
The key sentence: “Mr. Biden has a lead of only 57 percent to 34 percent among that group…”
We’ll address President Trump’s growing support among Blacks and Hispanics below.
First, as always, let me offer headlines and then follow up observations that help us grasp where we are eight days out from the General Election. If ever there was a time when I could have included a dozen headlines, this is it!
*”The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday that 52% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Forty-six percent (46%) disapprove”—Rasmussen Reports
*”For Trump, Conservative Catholics Are The New Evangelicals”—Tom Gjelten, NPR
*”The Memo: Five reasons why Trump could upset the odds”—Niall Stanage
*”2020Election #BattlegroundState #NCpoll conducted Oct 20-22 shows a growing Trump lead: 48.8% @realDonaldTrump, 46.0% @JoeBiden— Robert C. Cahaly
*”The big Trump rallies you don’t see”–Byron York
And
*”2016’s Reluctant Trumpers Are 2020’s Avid Trumpers”—Charlie Gerow
Here are four takeaways , at least for me.
#1. We’ve talked on dozens of occasions about the enthusiasm gap which Biden has chosen not to try to narrow by actively campaigning. My understanding he will not be on the campaign trail at all today and his schedule going forward will likely be leisurely. This is part of the gigantic gamble his campaign has taken by neglecting virtually all door-to-door contacts and all large gatherings. Reporter Ed O’Keefe put it this way:
I don’t think we’re really going to get a good measure on whether or not that worked of course until we have results. It either will have been a brilliant play, an adaptive move to the pandemic era, or it’s going to prove to be one of the biggest missed opportunities in American politics that he wasn’t out and about.
By contrast, it is extremely difficult to exaggerate the energy and the commitment of pro-life President Trump’s supporters. Byron York’s post today was only one example of stories the major media refuses to cover. He wrote this while in the city of Washington in the battleground state of Pennsylvania:
“I can’t believe there aren’t any newspeople here,” said Linda of Greene County, Pennsylvania, as she stood among hundreds of cars and pickup trucks idling in long parallel lines in a vast big-box-store parking lot Saturday, waiting to join the Interstate 70 Trump Train. Indeed, although there were carloads of Trump supporters as far as one could see, and many more on the way from Ohio and West Virginia, and this enormous political event was happening less than two weeks before the presidential election, as far as I could tell, I was the only newsperson there.
Friends have told me about flotilla and tractor rallies that have taken place in a number of states which are almost never mentioned by the national media. Coming from Minnesota myself, this is as Midwest and Middle America as you can possibly get. Naturally, the media elites despise it—and us.
Second, every few years, usually just before presidential elections, “Catholics” are discovered. And, every few years, when we try to track how they will vote, it breaks down among those who are practicing Catholics and those who identify as non-practicing Catholics.
As NPR’s Tom Gjelten wrote,
A recent NBC/Marist poll of likely voters in Pennsylvania, where white Catholics make up about a quarter of the electorate, found that practicing white Catholics favored Trump by more than 40 points, while those who call themselves nonpracticing supported Biden by about 25 points.
For us non-mathematicians, that is a net gain for President Trump of between 2% and 3%. In a state whose outcome is expected to be as close as you can possibly get, this could easily be a decisive factor.
#3. Third, every few years, usually just before presidential elections, the impact of single issue pro-life voters is altogether ignored or minimized. Niall Stanage offers “Five reasons why Trump could upset the odds.” His analysis is helpful, if unoriginal, but he ignores the influence of single-issue pro-lifers which has proved crucial in close races for 40 years.
Those five reasons are:
“Trump’s ground game.” He reports, “In conference calls with members of the media, Trump campaign aides frequently cite data that they believe displays their superiority. The Trump campaign claimed its volunteers knocked on more than 500,000 doors in swing states in a single week in September, for example.”
“Black turnout.” Stanage writes, “According to data site FiveThirtyEight, older African Americans remain firmly in the Democratic camp, but younger voters are less so. Polling from UCLA Nationscape showed support for Trump among Black voters between the ages of 18 and 44 rising from 10 percent in 2016 to 21 percent this year.” He does not address another component: Black men are much more supportive of President Trump than are Black women.
The ‘shy’ Trump voter. Stanage appears not to be a big believer in the notion that under the influence of a cancel culture gone wild, some percentage of people would be very reluctant to tell a pollster they are voting for Trump. For what it’s worth, I totally disagree.
A “related theory,” which he finds “more plausible” is “that Trump’s 2016 victory was built on big turnout in the least populous parts of some crucial states.” But that’s not a “theory,” it’s a fact and will prove absolutely pivotal in states such as Pennsylvania and potentially Minnesota and Michigan and Wisconsin.
“Voter registration.” Using Florida and Pennsylvania as examples, Stanage observes, “According to the campaign’s figures, Democrats out-registered Republicans by more than 78,000 people in Florida between August and November 2016. From August of this year until now, the GOP has a registration edge of roughly 104,000 in the state. The same pattern is seen in Pennsylvania, where a small Democratic advantage during those last four months in 2016 has shifted to a GOP gain of about 72,000 this year.”
And
“The Latino vote.” He writes, “Trump will almost certainly lose the Latino vote nationwide. But crucially, there is little sign that his standing with Latinos has declined since 2016.” Stanage Is clearly not a believer in the data that shows Mr. Trump doing much better than he did in 2016 (28%). Stanage will be proven wrong. The percentage of Latinos voting for the President will be in the mid-30s to possibly considerably more.
Fourth, and finally, consider this. There is a never-ending stream of stories about how Trump is supposedly doing less well in category “X”—or ought to!—than he did four years ago.
But rarely (at least in emphasis) do you read about people who either didn’t vote at all in 2016 or who did so reluctantly for Mr. Trump but who now passionately embrace his presidency. That’s the importance of Charlie Gerow’s provocative piece in Real Clear Politics.
President Trump is not a politician. He is, in every sense of the term, unique. Many people who find conventional politics unattractive are attracted to “having a businessman in the White House.”
Lots more to come tomorrow. If for whatever reason you think you might not be able to, or want to, vote on November 3, please be sure to vote in advance.
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