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Biden’s State-by-State decline among suburbanites is an ominous warning for pro-abortion Democrats

by | Nov 2, 2021

By Dave Andrusko

As the saying goes, a year is a lifetime in politics. So you can’t simply extrapolate pro-abortion President Biden abysmal standings (42% job approval versus 54% who disapprove) and assume the portrait of next year’s mid-term elections will be as grim as it is today for Democrats.

But the President’s party is up against enormous headwinds as evident in “A Year Ahead of the Midterms, Suburban Erosion Has Driven Biden’s State-by-State Decline,” a survey by Morning Consult.

In a word, “America’s suburbs helped fuel the Democratic Party’s electoral victories during Donald Trump’s presidency, but what these dense and educated enclaves giveth, they look primed to taketh away.” Here are the highlights of this fascinating overview by Eli Yorkley:

*Biden’s job performance in the third quarter of his presidency, down 6 percentage points since his first three months in office, while the share who disapproved increased 8 points to 52 percent. Taken together, this marks a 14-point decline in Biden’s net approval rating in the suburbs that helped deliver Democratic victories over the past four years, from Virginia’s governorship in 2017 to the two Senate runoffs in Georgia early this year.

This is a gargantuan decline. And there is no soft landing spot in sight.

*According to Morning Consult Political Intelligence tracking conducted this year in all 50 states, the erosion of support for President Joe Biden among suburban voters has driven the decline in the Democratic standard-bearer’s popularity across the map. These voters carry particular weight in states that will be key to Democrats’ chances of holding control of Congress after next year’s midterm elections, adding another hurdle to the already complicated work of holding the party’s slim majorities.

Think Georgia. Wisconsin, North Carolina, Ohio, Michigan, Florida and Pennsylvania.

*Among all voters, more approve than disapprove of Biden’s job performance in 18 states — mostly Democrat-friendly places such as California, Illinois, Minnesota and New York, as well as Virginia, all of which are likely to host competitive House contests. Biden’s net approval rating is underwater in 32 states, including narrow deficits in Nevada and Georgia and larger gaps in Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Ohio — which will all host decisive Senate races.

And who knows after today’s gubernatorial race is decided, Virginia may have more competitive races than imaginable six months ago. One other nugget.

*Distancing oneself from a party’s weakened national brand is an almost impossible task in a midterm election cycle. Just ask Republicans who lost in 2018 when Trump was president, or the Democrats who got shellacked during former President Barack Obama’s first midterm election. But it’s made even harder when Democrats are relying on many of the voters who were persuaded to join the ranks due at least partly to animosity toward Trump.

An incurable optimist, Ian Russell, an official at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee during the Obama’s presidency, talked of Democrats coming together to pass at least some of Biden’s “Build Back Better” agenda. But he warned

“Voter sentiment starts to coalesce like wet cement in the election year, and by late summer it’s set and it’s difficult to change the trajectory of campaigns.

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