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Biden’s average job approval sinks to below 40%

Feb 9, 2022

By Dave Andrusko

Funny, how President’s Biden sinking job approval numbers sort of sneak up on you. Sure, you’re accustoming to polls having him floundering in the low 40s but look what Bryon York summarized in just one paragraph?

The president’s job approval rating is a key factor in midterm election results. And just today, Biden’s approval dipped below 40% for the first time in the RealClearPolitics average of polls: 39.8% approve, versus 54.4% disapprove. Just remember this from a recent newsletter: “The Gallup organization has looked at midterm results going back to 1946. In elections where the president’s job approval rating was above 50%, Gallup said in a 2018 article, his party’s midterm losses in the House averaged 14 seats. But in elections where the president’s job approval rating was below 50%, the losses averaged 37 seats.”

A whopping minus 15 points! Ed Morrissey wrote

When was the last poll to show Biden with any kind of positive job approval rating? That would be a mid-December Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll, with IBD/TIPP giving Biden a tie a week earlier. (The latest IBD/TIPP rating is 38/48). CNN had Biden at +1 back in October, but that’s as good as it’s been for Biden.

York does a masterful job adding two other key indices. First, the direction of the country:

Another poll staple is the question of whether one believes the country is on the right track or whether it has gotten off course. Most of the time, most people believe the country is off course in some way or another. But the number has gotten quite high recently — about two-thirds believe the country is on the wrong track. That points toward change.

Then, the generic ballot:

This is the classic question on a poll: If the election were held today, would you vote for the Republican or the Democrat to represent you in Congress? Over the years, Democrats have almost always had the lead in the generic ballot question. But about three months ago, the GOP took the lead and is now up by four points, 47.6% to 43.6%, in the RealClearPolitics average.

Stay tuned. We will keep you up to date on the latest numbers all the way up until the mid-term elections on November 8.

Categories: Joe Biden
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