NRL News

Republicans enjoy 9 point advantage in generic ballot

by | Feb 23, 2022

By Dave Andrusko

If the numbers hadn’t been steadily growing more favorable, yesterday’s report from the Emerson national poll would be considered an outlier.

According to their survey, Republicans enjoy a whopping nine point advantage in the “generic ballot.” 

Voters were asked which congressional candidate on the ballot they would be most likely to vote for in the midterms, the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate. Half of voters (50%) say they plan to vote for the Republican candidate, while 41% say they plan to vote for the Democratic candidate; 9% are undecided. This is similar to the November national poll, which had Republican candidates nationwide leading Democratic candidates 49% to 42%.

Traditionally, Democrats have enjoyed an advantage.

But the number that really jumps out at you carries enormous significance for the mid-terms elections this November: enthusiasm.

The majority (73%) of registered voters report being very motivated to vote in the 2022 midterm elections. Republican voters express higher levels of motivation to vote than Democrats: 79% say they are very motivated to vote compared to 65% of Democratic voters. 

In addition to an overall 14 point advantage, there is this:

Younger voters are less motivated to vote: 57% of voters between the ages 18-29 say they are very motivated to vote, compared to 84% of voters over 50 who say they are very motivated to vote.

A 27 point advantage for Republicans! And finally, there is this from Emerson:

Hispanic voters are most critical of Biden’s job performance: only 35% approve while 56% disapprove. White voters are more favorable of Biden’s job performance: 41% approve and 51% disapprove. Black voters are the most favorable of Biden’s job performance: 66% approve while 28% disapprove.

As an aside, but an important one, black approval for Democrats is typically in the 90s. 

And once upon a time, support among Hispanics for Democrats was as high as 71%.

For an insightful look at these numbers from two Democrats, check out William A. Galston and Elaine Kamarck.

Categories: Politics