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Leaked abortion opinion gives no boost to Biden and Democrats 

by | May 16, 2022

By Dave Andrusko

Sometime, in the next six or seven weeks, the Supreme Court will hand down its much anticipated decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization.  Even though it was a first draft, Judge Samuel Alito’s opinion, which was leaked to the press, did call for the reversal of Roe v. Wade. 

Abortion supporters had already primed the pump prior to Politico’s revelation. But the blockbuster May 2nd story, written by Josh Gerstein and Alexander Ward, kicked their penchant for apocalyptic language into a higher gear.

Their language would have predicated a doomsday scenario anyway, but they were spurred by early polling that suggests that the language hasn’t moved the needle in their direction. It’s true (according to NBC News)

Support for abortion rights has reached a record high, and nearly two-thirds of Americans oppose the U.S. Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade, according to a new national NBC News poll conducted after the leak of a draft opinion that would strike down the constitutional right to abortion

Read the next two paragraphs carefully:

But enthusiasm from Democratic voters has shot up, with 61% expressing a high level of interest ahead of this year’s midterms, an eleven-point jump from March, according to NBC. But 69% of Republicans expressed high interest in the midterms, NBC reported, a notable advantage over Democrats. 

“It is true that Democratic interest is up, but we can’t lose sight that Republicans still enjoy an advantage that augurs well for election success,” Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, who conducted the survey with, told NBC.

Did Justice Alito’s draft opinion give pro-abortion President Joe Biden a boost? Well, let’s see.

Hot Air’s Ed Morrissey wrote today

Politico leaked the draft on the evening of May 2, exactly two weeks ago, and this poll was conducted between May 5-7 among 1,000 adults. That was right at the peak of media outrage and Joe Biden’s fulminating over the radical court and the need to defend abortion on demand at all stages of pregnancy.

The result

“Biden’s job approval dropped to 39/56 among all adults, the lowest of his presidency in this series,” Morrissey writes.

On personal approval, Biden’s also crashing. He’s down to 37/51 on that measure, the first time that a majority views him personally as negative. In April 2021, Biden got a 50/36 on that question, but Kamala Harris is doing even worse. Respondents give Harris a 31/48 favorability score, down from her inaugural peak of 46/41. Only 17% view Biden “very positive[ly],” and only 14% say the same for Harris. And that’s after the SCOTUS leak, too.

What’s more

Here’s a fun fact on favorability, post-SCOTUS leak: Republicans actually do better on this (35/46) than Democrats (31/50). In an NBC News poll. How’s that for the media’s narrative freak-out?

We’ll post several stories today about Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization.  

Categories: Polling