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GOP easily wins battle of party-switchers

by | Jun 27, 2022

By Dave Andrusko

In and of itself, we should careful not to draw any huge conclusions from an AP story headlined, “More than 1 million  voters switch to GOP in warning for Democrats.” It is, relatively speaking, a small number. But, as Steve Peoples and Aaron Kessler, report, “A political shift is beginning to take hold across the U.S. as tens of thousands of suburban swing voters who helped fuel the Democratic Party’s gains in recent years are becoming Republicans.” Here is their lead:

More than 1 million voters across 43 states have switched to the Republican Party over the last year, according to voter registration data analyzed by The Associated Press. The previously unreported number reflects a phenomenon that is playing out in virtually every region of the country – Democratic and Republican states along with cities and small towns – in the period since President Joe Biden replaced former President Donald Trump.

For example, “In Florida, Republicans captured 58 percent of party switchers during those last years of the Trump era. Now, over the last year, they command 70 percent. And in Pennsylvania, the Republicans went from 58 to 63 percent of party changers.”

Then the hammer drops:

But nowhere is the shift more pronounced — and dangerous for Democrats — than in the suburbs, where well-educated swing voters who turned against Trump’s Republican Party in recent years appear to be swinging back. Over the last year, far more people are switching to the GOP across suburban counties from Denver to Atlanta and Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Republicans also gained ground in counties around medium-size cities such as Harrisburg, Pennsylvania; Raleigh, North Carolina; Augusta, Georgia; and Des Moines, Iowa.

As Hotair’s Ed Morrissey explains, 

However, this isn’t about the direct impact as much as it is a signal of the direction of the overall electorate. Just as it did four years ago, this massive migration to the GOP signals that voters have grown extremely dissatisfied with the single-party rule of the incumbents. It’s a stronger signal than recent special elections, in fact, because this speaks to identity on a more permanent basis than just a momentary level of dissatisfaction. This data suggests a realignment in progress — a realignment at a relatively modest scale thus far, but one that might gain momentum if Joe Biden doesn’t shift directions dramatically after the midterms.

In that vein, Morrissey writes that President Biden “gets a 41/59 rating from CBS/YouGov, far worse than the previous YouGov rating of 44/51 in May, with only 15% strongly approving and 41% strongly disapproving. It’s not his worst rating lately, but it’s a sharp shift from previous YouGov polling, which had been the friendliest poll by far for Biden until now.” {Underlining added.}

“Biden and Democrats are woefully out of touch with the American people, and that’s why voters are flocking to the Republican Party in droves,” RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel told the AP. She predicted that “American suburbs will trend red for cycles to come” because of “Biden’s gas hike, the open border crisis, baby formula shortage and rising crime.”

The Democrat’s response? “The Democratic National Committee declined to comment when asked about the recent surge in voters switching to the GOP,” Peoples and Kessler write.

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