By Dave Andrusko
Voters correctly identified Republicans as the party of life, Democrats, the party of abortion. It would be fascinating to see how many Democrats have jumped ship in the last few years specifically because the party has become absolutely unhinged on abortion: Abortion throughout the entire pregnancy paid for by taxpayers.
How has the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe affected voter attitudes? It’s crucial to note that when the question is asked fairly—“The Supreme Court recently overturned the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision, so that each state can now determine its own laws regarding abortion. Do you approve or disapprove?”—the pro-life side does very well. (Emphasis added.) In the case of the Rasmussen Poll, 50% of Likely U.S. voters approved of the Supreme Court’s abortion decision.
Another way of gauging how much impact the decision has had thus far is to poll likely midterm voters and ask “whether they would vote Republican or Democrat in November’s congressional general elections, leaving out the specifics of the candidates in the individual races,” to quote Eric Frank. This is called the generic ballot poll.
The YouGov/Economist poll surveyed 1,500 U.S. adults, including 1,359 registered voters and 776 likely midterm voters, between June 25 and June 28—after the Supreme Court’s June 24 decision.
For those counting on a bump from angry Democrats, they would be angry and surprised: Republicans improved their generic ballot popularity by a point over what it was prior to the decision (LV stands for Likely Voter):
Generic Congressional Ballot Trends: Before vs. After Roe v Wade decision
Republicans/Democrats (YouGov, LV)
June 21 poll: 45/41 (R+4)
June 27 poll: 45/40 (R+5)
Traditionally, Democrats almost always fare better in the generic ballot than they do in the election. If you are a pro-abortion Democrat, this is very bad news.
