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Untangling all the polls on abortion 

Jun 10, 2022

By Dave Andrusko

With a decision on abortion about to be handed down, in the normal course of events, there would in all probability be a slew of polls. But things are not normal. With Justice Samuel Alito’ draft opinion calling for Roe’s reversal having been leaked to Politico, surveys are coming fast and furious.

The Wall Street Journal editorialized on this yesterday in “The Contradictions of Abortion Polling: More Americans say they’re ‘pro-choice,’ but views are more complicated if you read past the headline.” Here are four salient points in the editorial that are very much worth your time to read.

“The real contradiction in the polling is Roe, which has become a totem that doesn’t reflect the underlying policy views. Fifty-five percent of Americans tell Gallup that abortion should be generally illegal in the second trimester. Yet a majority say the Supreme Court should keep Roe. That circle can’t be squared, and it probably reflects that many Americans don’t realize what Roe really allows.”

Nicely put: succinct yet covers a lot of territory. We’ve written about this a hundred times and the conclusion is always the same. Led astray by a media joined at the hip to the abortion industry, the public rarely is told the full gravity of the “right” to abortion: abortion on demand throughout pregnancy.

“The Roe line of precedent enshrines a fundamental right to abortion until fetal viability, about 23 or 24 weeks. That’s almost the third trimester. In practice under Roe, however, abortion is legal right up to the day before birth and for any reason if a woman can find a doctor willing to perform it.”

When we tell people this, at least in my experience, they think I’m exaggerating for effect. Certainly no one supports abortion up until birth, right? Wrong. All 40 weeks and maybe afterwards for those children who survive an attempted abortion.

All of this complicates the media narrative that reversing Roe will be a political bonanza for Democrats, which they seem to believe. Only two of them in Congress—Sen. Joe Manchin and Rep. Henry Cuellar —voted no recently when Democrats tried to pass the Women’s Health Protection Act. That bill guarantees abortion access through viability, and through all nine months if a health provider deems the pregnancy a “health” risk. Does that include mental health? It also protects sex-selective abortions and undercuts state laws that require parental involvement for minors.

The Women’s Health Protection Act would operate like a giant eraser, wiping away any and all protections for unborn babies and their mothers. The Women’s Health Protection Act (S. 4132) “would nullify nearly all existing protective state laws,” said Jennifer Popik, J.D., director of Federal Legislation for National Right to Life. “In addition, this legislation also would have prohibited states from adopting new protective laws in the future, even laws specifically upheld as constitutionally permissible by the U.S. Supreme Court.” 

Finally

Public opinion on abortion policy remains diverse and for the most part more moderate. How the politics shakes out depends on how the debate and policies go in the states

Each state establishes its own abortion laws—exactly the situation before the Supreme Court handed down its disastrous Roe v. Wade decision. If you recall “Harvard/Harris poll offers very encouraging results on abortion questions,” you’ll remember that the survey asked  “If the court rolled back Roe v. Wade entirely leaving all abortion laws to the states would you favor or oppose that change?”

Almost exactly even: 49% would favor this reversal, 51% would oppose. They compare these results to the results of a November 2021. 46% would favor rolling back Roe, 54% opposed—a net gain of 3%.

Keep coming back to NRL News Today. We will continue to get the truth out.

Categories: Polling
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