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Latest abortion poll: “Americans who say abortion should be illegal in most or all cases are also more likely to say they will definitely vote than those who say abortion should be legal, by 11 points”

by | Jul 29, 2022

By Dave Andrusko

The results of the latest Washington Post-Schar School poll on abortion, released today, finds Prof. Mark Rozell “struggl[ing] to wrap my head around this disconnect.”

“Nearly two-thirds of Americans say the end of Roe v. Wade represents a ‘major loss of rights’ for women, a Washington Post-Schar School poll finds, but those who support abortion access are less certain they will vote this fall — a sign of the challenges facing Democrats who hope the issue will motivate their base in the midterms,” report the Post’s Hannah Knowles, Emily Guskin, and Scott Clement

[T]he poll also provides evidence of an enthusiasm problem for Democrats: Those who reject the idea that the court’s ruling is a loss for women are 18 percentage points more likely to express certainty they will vote in the midterms — 70 percent compared with 52 percent of those who do see such a loss, according to the Post-Schar School poll conducted July 22 to 24.

Democrats and women, especially younger women, are particularly uncertain they will vote. About 1 in 3 women under 40 are sure they will cast a ballot even as they have strong concerns about rollbacks in abortion access.

“Is the discontent with Democratic Party leadership and policies generally so deep that those most affected by the court decision … still plan to sit out this election?” said Mark Rozell, dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, who worked on the poll. “I struggle to wrap my head around this disconnect.”

There are many reasons for this “disconnect.” The public, by and large, doesn’t yet realize that the Dobbs decision returns the abortion issue to the states. In fact, this is democracy in action.

The abortion lobby has already unloaded its first stream of tough cases. The goal, obviously, is to paint pro-lifers as uncaring, as if killing an unborn baby is the model of sensitivity.

And, naturally, pregnancy help centers, which work faithfully to help both mother and children, gets short shrift.  They offer the ultimate in offering win-win solutions.

Finally, the “enthusiasm gap” is as old as the abortion wars. Single issue pro-lifers are much more likely to vote than single-issue pro-abortionists. In this poll, “Those who reject the idea that the court’s ruling is a loss for women are 18 percentage points more likely to express certainty they will vote in the midterms — 70 percent compared with 52 percent of those who do see such a loss.”

And finally, according to the Post story [underlining added]

Republicans are the most confident they will vote: 74 percent say they will definitely do so, compared to 62 percent of Democrats and 53 percent of independents. Americans who say abortion should be illegal in most or all cases are also more likely to say they will definitely vote than those who say abortion should be legal, by 11 points.

Categories: Polling
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