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43 days until the mid-term elections, encouraging news from the latest surveys

by | Sep 26, 2022

By Dave Andrusko

With just 43 days to go until the mid-term elections, attention is really picking up. Currently, the Senate is evenly divided 50-50 with pro-abortion Vice President Kamala Harris casting the tie-breaking vote, and the Democrats hold a slim 221-212 majority in the House of Representatives.

Over the weekend, the Washington Post/ABC survey was released. It is packed with good news for pro-life Republicans running for the House and Senate, although the Post does its customary job of attempting to minimize their advantage.

First, and easily missed, was that the survey was of registered voters, not likely voters; the former is simply less accurate. ABC’s Gary Langer makes that clear and the Washington Post-ABC doesn’t:

In the November midterm election ahead, registered voters divide 47%-46% between the Republican and the Democratic candidate in their House district, historically not enough to prevent typical first-midterm losses. And one likely voter model has a 51%-46% Republican-Democratic split. [Underlining added.]

Hot Air’s Ed Morrissey comments on how that continues a trend:

“All of the polls for the current RCP [Real Clear Politics] aggregate average are from this month. Notice anything else? Every single poll showing a Democratic lead uses samples of registered voters. Not one likely-voter survey has Democrats in the lead. Republicans lead in two of the three likely-voter surveys, and tie in the third, but they don’t trail in any of them.

Second, it is almost impossible to exaggerate how much of a burden President Biden is on his party. According to the Washington Post’s Dan Balz Emily Guskin, and Scott Clement

President Biden continues to be a drag on Democratic candidates this fall. The Post-ABC survey pegs his approval rating at 39 percent, with 53 percent disapproving, including 41 percent strongly disapproving. The share of Americans saying Biden has accomplished “a great deal” or “a good amount” has grown from 35 percent last November to 40 percent today, although a 57 percent majority still says he has not accomplished much or anything.

Did you miss that? Approval rating for President Biden or anything.”

And, Langer adds,

“Also, specifically on the economy, with inflation near a 40-year high, his approval rating is 36% while 57% disapprove — a 21-point deficit.”

Third, back to the races for Congress. The Washington Post reports

Voters say inflation and the economy are two of the most important issues in their decision, along with abortion and education. Republicans hold a 17-point advantage among registered voters on trust to handle the economy and an 18-point advantage on trust to handle inflation. But Democrats answer with a 17-point advantage on trust to handle abortion.

On other issues, Republicans hold a 22-point advantage on handling crime while Democrats hold a 21-point advantage on climate change. Democrats and Republicans are about even on handling education and schools.

However, the Washington Post adds

On issues, the survey finds broad opposition to the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling eliminating a constitutional right to abortion and a big Democratic advantage in trust to handle the issue. But there’s no sign it’s impacting propensity to vote in comparison with other issues: four rank higher in importance and two of them — the economy, overall, and inflation, specifically — work strongly in the GOP’s favor.

Langer note, perceptively,

Indeed, on abortion, supporters of the Supreme Court ruling are more apt than its critics to say voting is more important to them in this election than in previous midterms, 73% vs. 64%. Also, 76% of the ruling’s supporters say they’re certain to vote, as are 70% of its opponents.

Fourth, Balz Guskin, and Clement write

Still, the fight for control of Congress is an intense one, with Democrats finding themselves competitive among critically important independent voters. But in the most competitive congressional districts, the poll finds Republicans with the advantage. [Underlining added.]

To make an obvious but still extremely important point, you have to read these surveys carefully in order to separate the pro-life wheat from the pro-abortion chaff.

Categories: Polling