NRL News

14 days until the November 8 midterm elections. What do we know?

by | Oct 25, 2022

By Dave Andrusko

It shouldn’t be a surprise—after all, President Biden and his allies believe abortion is the key to retaining the House and Senate—but I still found this headline sort of shocking: “Biden Not Focused on Issues Important to Most Families: Poll.”

On what does Giulia Carbonaro base this conclusion? On a poll taken by Monmouth University which “asked respondents to identify the nine issues which they would like the federal government to tackle with the most urgency.”

Guess what?  In order of priority, the public wants politicians to prioritize inflation (46 percent), secure elections (38 percent), crime (37 percent), immigration (34 percent) and jobs/unemployment (32 percent). 

What about abortion? Thirty percent followed by racial inequality (25 percent), gun control (24 percent) and climate change (23 percent).

As NRL News Today has discussed over and over, the question is is abortion losing its potency?  Carbonaro writes

While concerns over inflation, elections and voting, crime, immigration and jobs and unemployment all show an increase of one or more percentage points from the previous month, fewer people identified abortion, racial inequality, gun control and climate change as America’s issue priorities in October compared with September.

So it is far to say that “A majority of Americans think President Joe Biden isn’t doing enough to address the issues that concern them the most, including inflation, according to a recent poll.”

Another point worth bringing up. It comes from FiveThirtyEight which takes deep dives into polling data using statistical analysis.

Headline from yesterday: “The Polls Are Getting Better For Republicans : It is a midterm year after all” by Nathaniel Rakich. He writes “For months, Democrats were defying midterm gravity. Now, it looks like they may be coming back down to earth. The president’s party almost always does poorly in midterm elections.”

The Generic-ballot is a “poll question that asks people nationwide which party they plan to vote for for Congress (without naming specific candidates).” They are moving toward the GOP.

Rakich “compared generic-ballot polls with a FiveThirtyEight pollster rating of B+ or higher from October to the same polls conducted in September. On average, they showed a 1.2-point shift toward Republicans. This included shifts of 4 points from two of the best pollsters in the business, Monmouth University and Siena College/The New York Times Upshot[emphasis added].

More tomorrow.

Categories: Politics