NRL News

33 days until the mid-term elections and Biden sinks to near-lowest approval of his presidency

by | Oct 5, 2022

Gallup’s latest data also shows that 48% of Americans believe the Republican Party is best equipped, while 37% believe it is the Democratic Party to handle the issue that they just named as the most important. 

By Dave Andrusko 

A Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll completed yesterday found that “President Joe Biden’s public approval rating edged lower this week and was close to the lowest level of his presidency.”

“The president’s sagging popularity, which drifted as low as 36% in May and June, has helped drive expectations that his Democratic Party will lose control of the U.S. House of Representatives in November, and possibly the Senate as well,” Jason Lange reported.

Speaking of congressional race, here are two important pieces of information. The first is from CNN—“Republicans hold a near-historic lead on a key midterm indicator”—an analysis by Harry Enten. He writes

We’re all used to polls that ask voters which issue is most important to them. Gallup puts the question to Americans open-ended, meaning a respondent can say anything from the mundane (e.g. inflation) to the inane (e.g. clowns). 

Gallup, unlike other pollsters, has another twist on that question. They follow it up by pressing respondents to answer which party they think can better handle the issue that they just named as the most important. 

Gallup’s latest data shows that 48% of Americans believe the Republican Party is best equipped, while 37% believe it is the Democratic Party. 

Enten digs deeper and picks up an important trend:

The large Republican lead this year may be a bit of a surprise given what seems to be the electoral landscape. Democrats and Republicans are basically tied on the generic congressional ballot at this point. Democrats have done well in special elections aided by the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. 

Indeed, it is certainly plausible that Democrats outperform the historical baseline the Gallup question suggests. 

But it’s also possible that abortion is fading as an issue. It ranked seventh when compared to other issues when Americans were asked to name issues that were extremely or very important to them in a recent Monmouth University poll. 

Gallup polling showed 8% of Americans named abortion as the nation’s most important problem in July. That was the highest since Gallup began tracking abortion as an important problem in 1984. In their most recent poll, only 4% said abortion was the most important problem.

Additionally, the percentage of Americans who listed the judicial system/courts/laws as the most important problem dropped from 5% in July to 2% now.

Another gauge is Google Searches. Enten tells us

The number of Google searches for abortion in September was basically tied with the number of searches in April, before the May leak of the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe. Searches in September were one-third of the level they were in May. They’re one-fifth of the level they were in June, when Roe was overturned. They’re less than half what they were in July. 

Please take a few minutes out and read Enten’s story.

The second is something we’ll pay special attention tomorrow.  “Mason-Dixon: Democrats face a Florida wipeout” by Ed Morrissey. Morrissey quotes from the poll

Mason Dixon Polling & Strategy on Wednesday released survey results that showed DeSantis with a commanding 11-point lead over Democrat Charlie Crist: 52 percent to 41 percent.

Also big margins— That same poll showed all three Republicans seeking Cabinet posts also with double-digit leads: Attorney General Ashley Moody up over Aramis Ayala, 50 percent to 37 percent; Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis leads Adam Hattersley, 47 percent to 37 percent; and Senate President Wilton Simpson with a clear advantage over Naomi Esther Blemur in the agriculture commissioner race, 47 percent to 34 percent.

If you can’t wait, you can read Morrissey’s analysis here.

Categories: Politics