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34 days until the mid-term elections, and latest surveys offer more encouraging news

by | Oct 4, 2022

By Dave Andrusko

Nate Cohn is The New York Times’s chief political analyst and “makes sense of the latest political data.” As such he has his ear to the grounds for evidence of any shifts in the upcoming Mid-term Election. The lead to his latest is “Poll Update: Republicans Gain in the Senate: A closer look at Pennsylvania and Nevada, and some Democratic leads that seem vulnerable.”

Cohn begins by referencing his post of two weeks ago where he “noted early signs that Republicans were making gains in the race for the Senate.” Here’s his lead:

Now it’s clear the race has shifted toward Republicans in important ways. Democrats might still lead enough races to hold the chamber, but their position is starting to look quite vulnerable.

On average, Republicans have gained three points across 19 post-Labor Day polls of the key Senate battleground states, compared with pre-Labor Day polls of the same states by the same pollsters.

The shift is similar to what we observed a few weeks ago. What’s changed with more data: We can be sure that the polling shift is real, and we have more clarity about where Republicans are making their biggest gains — Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

This story focuses on Pennsylvania—Pro-abortion Democrat John Fetterman who still leads Republican Dr. Mehmet oz.

But Dr. Oz has nonetheless made significant gains. On average, he has closed by a net of six percentage points in post-Labor Day polling, compared with surveys by the same pollsters taken before Labor Day.

After a quick examination of Nevada and Wisconsin, Cohn concludes with a discussion about the “Big Picture” which is “murky”:

Over the last few weeks, there haven’t been a lot of generic ballot polls, which ask voters whether they prefer Democrats or Republicans for Congress. But there are mounting signs of a rightward shift on this measure.

On Monday, a new Monmouth poll added to the pile. Republicans led by two points among registered voters, a pretty sizable shift from its last poll, when Democrats led by three points. Looking back over the last two weeks, there are a lot more Republican leads on the generic ballot than there used to be.

There are still a few dissenting data points, so it’s still too soon to be too confident about whether or to what extent Republicans have picked up ground nationwide, but it would be no surprise if Republicans were pulling back into the lead. With economic concerns on the rise and the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade moving farther into the rearview mirror, the opportunity for Republicans to reclaim lost ground might be at hand

Take a few minutes out and read “Poll Update: Republicans Gain in the Senate: A closer look at Pennsylvania and Nevada, and some Democratic leads that seem vulnerable.” It’s fascinating.

Categories: Politics