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8 days to go before the November 8th midterm elections. What do we know?

by | Oct 31, 2022

By Dave Andrusko

With just over a week to go, you would think that pollster would have run out of interesting questions to ask. Not so. According to CBS News:

The election is already underway; millions have voted, and tens of millions more will before Nov. 8. Amid that, eight in 10 likely voters describe things in the country today as “out of control,” as opposed to “under control.” 

Anthony Salvanto, Kabir Khanna, Jennifer DePinto, and Fred Backus then drop a powerful if obvious conclusion:

That doesn’t bode well for the party in power: Republicans are winning those who say “out of control” right now by more than 20 points.

They’ve  run various scenarios, some waaay more likely than others. For example, how do Democrats maintain their razor-thin margin?

We ran our estimates through a turnout model in which younger voters turn out in much higher numbers than our baseline model indicates, bailing Democrats out late in the game. This would run counter to what we’ve seen in recent weeks, both from what young voters tell us in surveys and from early ballot returns, but it isn’t impossible. [Underlining is mine.]

Then there is there “big-Republican-turnout scenario”

which builds off the trend that we have been seeing: both parties motivated, but Republicans even more so. Specifically, there’s a path to a further uptick driven by an Election-Day turnout surge among White voters without college degrees — a group that showed up for Donald Trump in large numbers.

No “but it isn’t impossible” hedging here.

Then there is the astonishing turnaround in what Independents say they intend to do on Election Day. Newsweek’s Anna Commander tells us that Republicans now enjoy a 16 point advantage. She outlines the Democrats huge tactical error—a reliance on abortion:

October has proven to be victorious for GOP candidates, with independent voters aligning with the Republican Party in an 18-point swing against Democrats, according to the latest CBS/YouGov poll that was published on Friday.

The poll shows two surveys were taken, with one conducted on October 14 with Democrats ahead of Republicans by 2 points having 40 percent of the independent vote. However, the second survey taken on October 28 shows Democrats only having 33 percent support from independent voters, with Republicans surging ahead with support of 49 percent. The poll surveyed 1,000 people and had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points. [Underlining is mine.]
 
This election cycle has been dominated by GOP platforms like inflation and rising crime while Democrats have campaigned on abortion rights. This has proven to be not the most effective strategy for Democrats, with the latest New York Times/Siena poll from mid-October showing voters’ top concerns are the economy (jobs) and inflation (cost of living).

Specifically, people were asked “What do you think is the MOST important problem facing the country today?” Abortion garnered only 5%, miles behind “the economy” [28%] and “inflation or the cost of living [18%].

By the way, Joe Biden’s job approval is 43% while a dismal 26% believe we are headed in the right direction while 66% say we are “on the wrong track.”

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