NRL News

7 days to go until the November 8th midterm elections. What do we know?

by | Nov 1, 2022

By Dave Andrusko

More good news, as pro-abortion Democrats prospects flounder. We’ll list representative headlines rather than comment. They speak for themselves.

* “On the menu today: Gallup unveils new polling numbers which find that the public assessment of the U.S. economy and national satisfaction are the lowest they have measured at the time of a midterm election; a new Wall Street Journal survey finds that white suburban women shifted 26 percentage points away from Democrats since August; Democrats are spending six-figure sums on television advertising to defend multiple House members in districts that Joe Biden won by at least 20 points in 2020 — and yet, we’re still seeing coverage suggesting that a late push on the issue of January 6 could save the midterms for Democrats.” From “The Media’s Delusional Midterm Coverage,” by Jim Geraghty.

* “The political environment for the 2022 midterm elections should work to the benefit of the Republican Party, with all national mood indicators similar to, if not worse than, what they have been in other years when the incumbent party fared poorly in midterms. …

“The political peril of a party led by an unpopular president is apparent in the fact that the incumbent president’s party has lost seats in every midterm election when his approval rating has been below 50%. Seat losses in the House of Representatives for unpopular presidents’ parties have averaged 37 since 1946.

“Biden’s 40% job approval rating is higher than only one other recent president at the time of a midterm election — George W. Bush in 2006, at 38%. Further back in history, Harry Truman also had sub-40% approval ratings in both of his midterm elections, in 1946 (33%) and 1950 (39%).

“In other recent midterm years — 2010, 2014 and 2018 — between 41% and 45% of Americans approved of the job the president was doing, with seat losses ranging from 13 to 63 in those years.”  From Gallup, “GOP Has Political Winds at Their Back in 2022.” 

* “The survey, conducted about two weeks before Election Day, suggests that abortion rights are less important in voting decisions than voters indicated in the summer, after the Supreme Court in June ended the federal constitutional right to abortion. Republicans have regained momentum since then and now hold a slight edge over Democrats, 46% to 44%, when voters are asked which party they would support in their congressional district if the election were held today.” From “Republican Election Prospects Rise as Inflation Overshadows Abortion, WSJ Poll Finds.”

*The GOP has seen a shift in its favor among several voter groups, including Latino voters and women, and particularly white suburban women. That group, which the pollsters said makes up 20 percent of the electorate, shifted 26 percentage points away from Democrats since the Journal’s August poll and now favors the GOP by 15 percentage points.” Also from “Republican Election Prospects Rise as Inflation Overshadows Abortion, WSJ Poll Finds.”

Just one more… The generic ballot vote measures party preference without naming a specific candidate. “[Pollster Robert] Cahaly told me [John McCormack] that his last national numbers gave the GOP a five-point lead on the generic ballot, but he noted that in his forthcoming data, he expected that lead to rise a bit. Sure enough, over the weekend, Trafalgar’s new 2022 ballot survey dropped.”

More tomorrow.

Categories: Politics