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Five days until the November 8th mid-term elections. What do we know?

by | Nov 3, 2022

By Dave Andrusko

Have you voted yet or are you like me, a creature of habit who is waiting for November 8, Election Day? Either way, these are very exciting times, the first post-Roe v. Wade election!

As we have for weeks, we will talk about what the prospects are for pro-life Republicans and pro-abortion Democrats. I’ll start with headlines then double back to see what they mean.

#1. “Biden and congressional Democrats are counting on outrage over the Supreme Court’s ruling on abortion to mobilize their base and drive them to the polls as they try to protect their slim majorities in the House and the Senate.

“Yet poll after poll after poll has shown while abortion is a concern for many voters, the overwhelming concern remains economic issues such as jobs and inflation.” USA Today.

#2. “Still, the electoral planets have rarely if ever aligned to this extent for either party, or at least not in a very long time. A new report from Gallup shows voters more disaffected from the status quo than anytime in the 40-year history of its survey. Joe Biden’s popularity is second-lowest in that time span, and economic conditions the worst.” HotAir’s Ed Morrissey.

#3. “Republican Senate candidate Mehmet Oz has taken the lead in the US Senate race in Pennsylvania against Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman in the final days before Tuesday’s vote, according to a poll released Thursday.  The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey found Oz ahead of Fetterman 48% to 46%, a 5 percentage point gain for the former TV doctor in the weeks after Fetterman struggled in their only debate from the effects of a stroke in May.” Bloomberg News.

#4. “Oz is currently benefiting from late momentum from a successful TV debate performance last week against Fetterman. In the poll, among voters who say they were influenced by the TV performance of the candidates (138 of the 700n, or 20%), Oz leads 69:24. Moreover, voters who say they have made up their minds on a candidate in the last 7 days are breaking for Oz 68:32. This makes sense given Fetterman’s early lead over Oz after the divisive GOP primary. Some in the media have suggested the debate was a non-issue, but this poll suggests otherwise.” Susquehanna Polling and Research.

One more, a long one…

#5 “But as we’re now less than a week from Election Day, the momentum is clearly on the Republicans’ side and the possibility of a Republican rout has increased. 

“Why? We’re dealing with a deeply dissatisfied electorate, which almost always means the president’s party is punished by voters. 

“Take a look at a Gallup poll released on Tuesday. Just 17% of Americans say they were satisfied with the direction the country was going. That’s the worst in any midterm since at least 1982, when Gallup first measured satisfaction in a midterm. 

“Importantly, this satisfaction with the direction of the country is highly correlated with midterm outcomes in the House. In the midterms when more Americans are dissatisfied than satisfied with the direction of the country, the party that held the White House has lost an average of 33 seats. That jumps to 46 seats in a president’s first midterm.” CNN’s Harry Enten.

And this doesn’t even talk about what we discussed yesterday. Hotair’s David Strom said of the Wall Street Journal poll, “It is impossible to overstate how disastrous this poll was for Democrats, and what it may portend.”

Here’s the monster swimming just below the surface though: the Democrats are losing women, despite their relentless focus on abortion. Even women who prioritize abortion as a voting issue are swinging away from Democrats. Combined with the (so far) modest drifting away of the black vote Democrats are in danger of losing the twin pillars of support that have kept them competitive and earned them all their victories in recent decades.

The GOP has seen a shift in its favor among several voter groups, including Latino voters and women, and particularly white suburban women. That group, which the pollsters said makes up 20% of the electorate, shifted 26 percentage points away from Democrats since the Journal’s August poll and now favors the GOP by 15 percentage points.

White suburban women shifted 26% away from Democrats since August? That is huge, and could devastate Democrats even if everybody else didn’t move a bit.

It would certainly appear that pro-life Republicans have the wind at their backs. It would be difficult to exaggerate how much of a drag pro-abortion President Joe Biden is on the entire ticket. 

As Morrissey wrote last week “the big question heading into the midterms was whether the Democrats could outrun President Joe Biden’s approval rating,” which is at 40%. “No first-term president whose approval rating was below his disapproval rating in a midterm since 1974 has seen his party end up with more than 200 seats in the House.”

The other factors were reported by CNN yesterday: enthusiasm and concerns over the economy. Jennifer Agiesta and Ariel Edwards-Levy write “An enthusiastic Republican base and persistent concerns about the state of the economy place the GOP in a strong position with about a week to go in the race for control of the US House of Representatives, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS. The new survey out Wednesday shows that Democratic enthusiasm about voting is significantly lower than it was in 2018, when the Democratic Party took control of the House. Republican voters in the new poll express greater engagement with this year’s midterm election than Democrats across multiple questions gauging likelihood of vote.”

Nothing is assured. These analyses use polling data and a general sense of the mood of the electorate (sour, would be an apt description)which is good as far as that goes.

But, as always, turnout is the key. Again, I ask, have you voted yet or have you promised in your heart to show up November 8th?

This is the first post-Roe v. Wade election. Let’s make the most of it! The babies are counting on us.

Categories: Politics