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Behind the numbers: Two recent polls show President Biden tied or behind former President Trump

by | Oct 24, 2023

By Dave Andrusko

We ended Monday’s National Right to Life News Today with a brief but intriguing post I entitled “Two polls find Biden/Trump neck and neck.”

That headline summarized the most fundamental take-aways from Daily Caller’s Mary Lou Masters, who was analyzing the findings of a Harvard CAPS/Harris survey, and a USA Today/Suffolk University survey.

In a nutshell, these two surveys (taken almost 13 months away from the 2024 elections) show the two men are separated by a hairbreadth’s in the USA Today/Suffolk University survey and Trump “winning by 6 points in a three-way race with newly-independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr.” in the Harvard CAPS/Harris survey.

Details matter, so let’s dig a little deeper. According to USA Today

It’s a tie: One year before the presidential election, Joe Biden and Donald Trump each command 37% of the vote in a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll − with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. costing Trump what would have been a narrow lead.

Kennedy, scion of the nation’s most revered Democratic family, won 13% of the vote in a hypothetical match-up, drawing voters who by 2-1 said they would otherwise support the probable Republican nominee.

Interestingly, the Harvard CAPS/Harris survey showing Trump up by five points—46% to 41%–also has independent Robert F. Kennedy coming in with almost half again total of 19%.

One of the most important issues in any presidential race is the economy. In the Harvard CAPS/Harris survey, only 1/3rd say the U.S. Economy is on the right tract.

On Monday a headline in the Washington Post read “Biden team looks at buying more ads amid ongoing polling concerns.” Biden’s campaign is already purchasing a boatload worth of ads.

“Biden signed off on the initial fall television and digital campaign despite concerns from some advisers who felt that the money could be better allocated for other priorities like building up staff sooner or growing cash reserves. Other Democrats continue to question whether the upbeat sales pitch in some Biden ads fails to reflect the economic realities of voters.”

And this:

Others have expressed concerns over the “Bidenomics” message, which ties the sales pitch to a political brand that polls poorly on the economy, and the reliance of ads on macroeconomic indicators, like job growth and a declining inflation rate, that do not directly address the economic realities of many voters. They have argued that Biden and his top advisers are wasting money at a time when voters are not paying attention and not even convinced that Biden will be the Democratic nominee.

One other item. According to USA Today

“The president’s job approval rating is 40% approve, 56% disapprove.”

This is typical.

“The intensity of feeling is running against him: 13% say they ‘strongly approve,’ while three times that, 41%, say they ‘strongly disapprove.’”

This is typical too and is extraordinarily dangerous to see this gigantic enthusiasm gap.

 More tomorrow.

Categories: Polling