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NY Times poll has Democrats in full panic mode over Joe Biden running for a second term:  Part III

by | Nov 8, 2023

By Dave Andrusko

Last night pro-abortion Democrats experienced a heady run of success in Ohio, Virginia, and Kentucky. Ironically, this did little for President Biden because it served only to highlight how poorly he is faring with a very disgruntled electorate.

Those who’ve read Parts One and Two know it was a New York Times/Siena College poll that appeared Sunday in the New York Times that set off the 5-alarm fire. That found Biden and former President Donald Trump tied at 47% each.

CNN’s Stephen Collinson built his analysis on a CNN/SSRS survey. In “5 takeaways from new polls that reveal Biden’s challenges and Trump’s potential victory path” he reached the same conclusion:

The new surveys are again casting doubt on the rationale of a second term for Biden, who turns 81 later this month and is losing support from critical younger and minority voters even as Democrats running in 2023 elections hit on issues that resonate.

The new survey found Trump ahead of Biden by four points—49% to 45%–which, as he says, “is bad enough”! But “a deep dive into the data reveals alarming challenges for Biden.”

The “biggest difference,” which seems obvious now that Collinson pointed it out, between 2020 and now is that Biden is not being compared to Trump but rather

Biden is being evaluated by voters on his political record, against his promises and for his personal demeanor. And a year out from the next election, the country is not getting what it wants. …

Tuesday’s CNN poll in particular carries some alarming warnings at this point for the president’s reelection hopes, which means the 2024 race is likely to be far more layered than the simple one-on-one match-up Biden’s camp envisages.

Collinson lays out “five dynamics that could spell challenges for Biden.” They are

The age issue

Biden, with his subdued, halting rhetoric hardly exudes gusto. Age, personal tragedy, and the burdens of office mean he’s unrecognizable from the beaming, back-slapping senator of 15 years ago.”

Economic perceptions are hurting Biden

“The president’s strategy of highlighting strong job and economic growth numbers and his historic infrastructure package – sold under the umbrella of ‘Bidenomics’ – is a currently a failure. A sense of malaise, not reflected in many economic indicators, is nevertheless conjuring voter nostalgia for the Trump economy. In The New York Times survey of battleground states, Trump led Biden by 10 points in Nevada, by 6 in Georgia, by 5 in Arizona and by 5 in Michigan. Across states surveyed, only 19% viewed the economy as excellent or good.”

A world spinning out of control

“At a time when the world may look like it’s in chaos… Biden’s self-defined foreign policy expertise is counting for little. Voters see Trump as a stronger leader… The CNN poll showed that only 36% view the president as an effective global leader while 48% think the same of Trump. …”

History doesn’t favor Biden

“Assurances from Democratic leaders that the tide will inevitably turn in Biden’s favor because of the advantages of incumbency also ignore the fact that his approval ratings are running behind predecessors who won a second term. … [T]he 42nd president [Clinton] was at 52% in November 1995 and the 44th [Obama] was at 46% in 2011. Biden is languishing at 39%, two points below Trump’s mark a year before he lost the 2020 election and ahead of only one-term Jimmy Carter.” And…

A sense of malaise could open a path for Trump

“CNN found that 72% of all Americans say things in the country today are going badly and a broad majority have thought so all the months that Biden has been in office. Negative perceptions of the economy are likely to further worsen the public mood. And Democratic voters seem far less engaged and enthusiastic than Republicans. The CNN survey, for example, finds that 71% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters are extremely motivated to vote in next year’s presidential election versus 61% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters.”

Collinson is no fan of Trump, in fact he is a harsh critic. But the facts are the facts and all his digs at Trump won’t change them.

Categories: Joe Biden
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