By Dave Andrusko
There is so much news about the 2024 presidential contest that it’s easy to forget we are still 259 days out from November 5. The two main narratives are can pro-abortion President Joe Biden last almost nine more months; and can pro-life former President Donald Trump weather the no-hold-barred campaign to win the election for the Democrats in the courts.
The Democratic-leaning Axios is pleading for Biden to pick up his game:
Biden officials see next month’s State of the Union address as a big, public reset moment — a chance to overcome or at least neutralize concerns about President Biden’s age and vitality.
Why it matters: Many top Democrats are convinced that if the election were today, Biden would lose a rematch with former President Trump. Biden’s address on March 7 is his biggest chance to shift public perceptions.
Yikes. Indeed, time’s a-wastin, say Mike Allen and Alex Thompson, because the window is begin to close:
Biden’s ownership of the national spotlight will be brief. Just five days after his speech, House Republicans will hold a hearing with special counsel Robert Hur, whose report cleared the president of mishandling documents but called him a “well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.”
Under the headline “Democrats have a better option than Biden,” New York Times columnist and podcaster Ezra Klein argues Democrats should convince the president not to run again. He admits that puts pro-abortion Vice President Kamala Harris in the front row. Even though she is even more unpopular, Klein argues she is more capable than she is given credit for.
Former Obama administration speechwriter Jon Favreau partly rebutted Klein. According to The Hill’s Sarah Fortinsky
“The challenge is, we just don’t know — and will likely never know — if nominating Biden is riskier than letting Democratic activists and insiders pick a lesser-known and potentially weaker general election candidate at the convention with three months to go,” Favreau wrote on X.
Favreau noted Democrats “have some real stars who’ve won races in the toughest states,” but he added that “it’s not at all clear that they’d a) be the choice of the delegates, or b) end up stronger than Biden against Trump,” pointing to some limited polling that shows Biden outperforming other Democratic candidates in a head-to-head match-up against former President Trump.
Ultimately, however, Favreau agreed with Klein about
the importance of Biden recognizing voters’ concerns, rather than simply pointing to Trump’s similar fallibility or dismissing the concerns as a media construct.
“What Biden can do is take concerns about his age seriously, acknowledge that fears about his performance aren’t media creations or Democratic bedwetting, and focus single-mindedly on crisp, strong, energetic appearances, which we’ve seen he’s absolutely capable of (2023 [State of the Union], Jan 6th speeches, etc.),” Favreau said.
Finally, Katherine Tangalakis-Lippert, of Business Insider, writes there are no certainties should Biden step down:
Even if Biden were to pass the baton to the next generation, and even if a prominent Democrat were ready to take his place — two very big “ifs” — [Political Scientist Justin] Buchler noted the current issues that exist for Biden would still be baked into the campaign of anybody who had stepped in to take his place.
“The only time that an incumbent president stepped down rather than running for reelection in the modern era was Lyndon Johnson and there is no evidence that that helped Hubert Humphrey, who eventually lost to Richard Nixon anyway,” Buchler said. “So the idea that Joe Biden stepping down would help a successor has no support in the historical data.”
