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Gallup says “Political, Economic Indicators Not Promising for Biden”

Feb 21, 2024

By Dave Andrusko

Back in 2020, while campaigning for Democratic senators, pro-abortion Joe Biden said, “Look, I view myself as a bridge, not as anything else,” adding “There’s an entire generation of leaders you saw stand behind me. They are the future of this country.”

As the saying goes, “That was then, This is now.” As Democrats grow increasing nervous about their prospects this November, they are faced with a recalcitrant president with horrible job approval numbers who shows no signs of quitting.

What to do, bearing in mind that the longer it takes to convince Biden that it’s time be that “bridge,” the less likely it is that it will work.

Columnist Mort Kondracke gives two thumbs up to an idea floated around that might persuade Biden to step aside. What is this “good idea”? It’s

floated in the New York Times – by conservative columnist Ross Douthat and liberal Ezra Klein – that Biden could withdraw before the Democratic National Convention and let the delegates pick the party’s ticket in Chicago in late August.

Good luck with that.

Not that there aren’t plenty of reasons to try anything to get Biden off the ticket. There’s a ton of them in a Gallup analysis written by Jeffrey M. Jones and Megan Brenan under the headline “Political, Economic Indicators Not Promising for Biden”.

Their summary?

  • Sub-50% presidential job ratings have usually resulted in electoral defeat
  • Satisfaction, economy ratings similar to those for losing incumbents
  • 37% say they are better off financially, 45% say worse off

That’s just for starters. Let’s flesh them out:

Biden’s 41% job approval rating, the lowest among incumbents in January of an election year, puts him in a precarious spot. It has not been unusual for incumbents to be below the 50% threshold this early on. But Biden’s reelection may depend on his ability to boost his numbers close to that threshold, something Clinton, Obama and Richard Nixon were able to do but Trump and Ford were not.

* Jones and Brenan write

Democrats typically lead Republicans in Americans’ party preferences; therefore, the size of that lead indicates whether Democrats are in a strong or weak position.

Gallup’s January 2024 poll shows the Democratic Party with a three-point advantage over Republicans: 46% identify as or lean Democratic, and 43% identify as or lean Republican. If this were October, these figures would be concerning for Biden, as it would represent the smallest Democratic advantage in an incumbent election year, including 2004 when Republican George W. Bush won with Democrats holding a five-point edge. In years Democratic incumbents won (1996 and 2012), the Democrats’ party advantage was +10 and +7, respectively.

One other piece to the puzzle. The bottom line, according to Gallup, is

that “Biden’s reelection chances do not look very favorable in early 2024. His job approval rating is lower than all recent incumbents at the same point, including those who ultimately lost the election, and key national mood indicators are more in line with those for past losers than winners.” …

Biden won his first term after national mood indicators worsened throughout the 2020 election year, which led to his defeating Trump, the incumbent.

Many Americans continue to struggle financially, and Biden has so far been unable to convince voters of the economy’s health or his accomplishments. If he cannot do so by the summer, particularly before the Democratic National Convention, his chances of winning reelection will grow increasingly bleak.

Categories: Joe Biden
Tags: Joe Biden