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As Trump nears victory, NY Times writes “The 2020 Election is back”

by | Mar 6, 2024

Donald Trump
Photo: Gage Skidmore

By Dave Andrusko

Former President Donald Trump all but guaranteed he’d be the Republican nominee for President with a resounding string of victories yesterday on Super Tuesday. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who sole win yesterday was a squeaker in Vermont, acknowledged defeat this morning but for now did not endorse fellow Republican Trump.

And now it begins: pro-life Trump against President Joe Biden, the most pro-abortion Democrat ever to occupy the White House—no small feat.

The New York Times’s Nate Cohn dubbed the rematch as “The 2020 Election is back”. On paper, Cohn writes, President Biden ought to be the favorite:

Yet according to the polls, Mr. Trump begins the general election campaign in the lead.

Mr. Trump’s lead is modest but clear. Over the last four months, he has led nearly every poll in Michigan, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia, along with the states he carried in 2020 — enough to give him 283 electoral votes and the presidency. He also leads in most national polls over the last month, including a New York Times/Siena College poll last weekend.

This is not what many expected from a Biden-Trump rematch, especially after Democrats were resilient in the midterms and excelled in special elections by campaigning on issues like democracy and abortion.

But Mr. Trump is winning anyway, and there’s a simple reason: Mr. Biden is very unpopular

The latest spate of polls have been brutal for Mr. Biden. Alluding to the recent Fox News poll, National Review’s Rich Lowry wrote

Besides the public’s belief that Biden is too old to serve again, 48 percent said that Biden’s policies are hurting them and their families, and only 25 percent said they are helping — whereas 45 percent said Trump’s policies helped and 32 percent said they hurt.

By the way, Fox asked whether Biden has succeeded or failed regarding various policy priorities, from securing the border to addressing climate change, and a majority said he failed on every single one.

Jim Geraghty wrote about President Biden’s mysterious belief that he’s leading in the last five polls. Was he talking about the “battleground” states which could well decide who our next president will be?

Trump has led every recent poll in ArizonaGeorgiaMichigan, Nevada, and North Carolina. Biden has led three of the last five in Pennsylvania and one of the last five in Wisconsin, with two ties.

CBS News headlines its survey as “CBS News poll finds voters remember Trump’s economy as good, boosting Trump to national lead over Biden today” [https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-trump-leads-biden-economy].

Anthony Salvanto, Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus, and Kabir Khann point out that “Mr. Biden’s policies are expected to cause price increases and Republicans overwhelmingly say they expect lower prices if Trump is elected.”

Specifically, 55% said they expected prices to go up under the policies of Mr. Biden compared to 34% for Mr. Trump.

Then there’s the question if they are voting more for their candidate or against his opponent?

Most of Mr. Biden’s voters feel this is an election mostly about fear of what might happen; and more of them are voting to oppose Trump than because they like Mr. Biden.

Most of Trump’s voters say this is an election about hope for what might happen; more of them are voting Trump because they like him, not opposition to Mr. Biden. 

Finally, there’s Gallup’s most recent findings. Megan Brenan concludes [https://news.gallup.com/poll/610988/biden-job-approval-edges-down.aspx]

Biden’s approval rating has not risen above 44% since August 2021, and his 39.8% average rating for his third year in office was the second worst among post-World War II presidents elected to their first term.

Categories: Donald Trump