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215 days to go until November 5. What do we know?

by | Apr 1, 2024

By Dave Andrusko

Is it too early to count down the days until the November 5 elections? It’s 217 days, and, no, I don’t believe we have the luxury of allowing a day to go by as we gear up for what promises to be an epic battle between pro-life former President Donald Trump and pro-abortion President Joe Biden.

We’ve run many, many stories documenting how Mr. Trump has come from way behind Mr. Biden to lead narrowly both nationally and in the swing states that will decide who will be the 47th president.

Of recent interest is, of course, Mr. Trump’s breakthrough with voters of color and will younger voters, neither of which was expected.

“Polls in recent months have regularly shown Biden polling below 2020 levels among Black and Latino voters,” reported Michael Scherer and Sabrina Rodriguez.  “A recent Quinnipiac University poll found Biden pulling support from 60 percent of Black voters and 34 percent of Hispanic voters in a five way race with Trump and three third-party candidates. Exit polls in 2020 showed Biden winning 87 percent of the Black voter and 65 percent of the Latino vote.”

Then there are Millennials and Generation Z voters—basically 18-29.

According to Jarrell Dillard, writing for Bloomberg News,

At a time when Donald Trump is cutting into Biden’s 2020 advantage with young adults, the growing list of grievances among those between the ages 18-29 is a worrying sign for Biden as he seeks a second term.

 

People in that age cohort are more than twice as likely to cite the economy as their top concern compared with older adults in recent Gallup data. And while all voters are more worried about the economy now than they were heading into the 2020 presidential election, the pessimism has spiked the most among those under 30.

 

That concern is being reflected in polls. Trump is currently leading the president 47% to 40% with voters 18-34 in swing states, according to a March Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll. By contrast, Biden won 61% of voters under 30 last cycle.

 

Though the November election is months off and attitudes can shift, there’s no doubt Biden will need support from Generation Z and Millennial voters to win.

Mr. Trump leads Mr. Biden “by 5 points (41%-36%) over a five-candidate field in the poll, and his presidential approval rating tops that of Biden right now: 55% say they approve of the job Trump did as president, a figure that is 10 points higher than Biden’s current approval rating of 45%,” Newsmax reports. The headline for Eric Mack’s story is “Harvard Poll: Trump Leads by 5; 63% Say Biden Too Old” [Harvard Poll: Trump at 55 Percent Presidential Approval].

On the other hand, Trump led by “just 2 points over Biden in a hypothetical head-to-head, with roughly 9 percent of voters undecided.”

Mack offers several other important topline findings:

  • A 58% majority said the U.S. is on the wrong track under the Biden administration, compared to 34% who said it is on the right track.
  • 56% said the U.S. economy is weak under Biden.
  • A plurality of 47% said their personal finances are getting worse under Biden.
  • Biden’s State of the Union speech provided no increase on his 45% approval rating since the last poll.
  • A majority of 52% had an unfavorable opinion of Biden’s State of the Union speech, with majorities saying he did not address the issues their family cares most about (54%) and “failed” to present solutions of their family’s issues (55%).
  • 56% said the Democrats are using “lawfare” to take out their chief political opponent.

We’d want a much more secure lead for Mr. Trump but the trend lines are good.

Categories: Donald Trump