By Dave Andrusko

This is our end of the week examination of what can we tell, 192 days out from November 5 election, about the presidential contest between pro-life former President Donald Trump and pro-abortion President Joe Biden?

Let’s start with a broad overview. G. Elliott Morris writes, “Trump leads in swing-state polls and is tied with Biden nationally.”

“Swing states” are the seven states which are extremely competitive and could well dictate the outcome. Trump currently leads them by on average margin of 3.3%.

Biden’s approval ratings have hovered around the 40% mark, as low as 35.% [Quinnipiac] and as high as 45% [Marist]. Where the president really gets crushed are his approval ratings on crucial policies.

For example, Inflation [38.6%]; Foreign Policy [35.3%]; Immigration [35.3%]; Crime [38.4%]; and Direction of the Country [24.9%]. Ugh.

On April 21, NBC’s election analyst Steve Kornacki examined their most recent poll on “Meet The Press” with moderator Kristen Welker. He started with the good news for President Biden: he now trailed by only two points. But Kornacki noted…

Although, broader picture here, this 42% approval rating, history says  probably by itself not enough. He’s probably going to need more because put this in some context here: these are other recent presidents. At this point in their reelection campaigns, where were their approval ratings? Again, you see Biden’s 42%. One thing that jumps out, they were all higher than Joe Biden.

At that junction Welker jumped in:

WELKER: And I stop here because competent and effective, that was President Biden’s, the crux of his campaign pitch back in 2020.

 

KORNACKI: And we actually polled this question in 2020, and it was basically the exact opposite. It was Biden with about a ten-point advantage over Trump and, again, same with handling of crisis. Biden had the edge over Trump.

 

And how about this? It’s the former president vs. the current president. We don’t really see matchups like this. Well, now we can measure it. Who has the strongest record as president? And, again, Trump outpacing Biden on that front. And, again, you’ve got to mention this one, too. “Necessary mental and physical health.” We asked this four years ago, it was a wash. It’s now a clear liability for Joe Biden.

 

So these are all troubling numbers for Biden, but it’s not to say there aren’t warning signs for Donald Trump in this poll either.

Finally, Pew Research did a very interesting poll. Here a couple of highlights:

More than a third of voters say they are extremely or very confident that Trump has the physical fitness (36%) and mental fitness (38%) needed to do the job of president.

 

Far fewer say the same of Biden (15% are at least very confident in his physical fitness; 21% are extremely or very confident in his mental fitness). Majorities say they are not too or not at all confident in Biden’s physical and mental fitness.

Pew also did a demographic breakout:

• White voters favor Trump (56%) over Biden (42%) by a wide margin.
• Roughly three-quarters of Black voters (77%) support Biden, while 18% back Trump.
• Hispanic voters are more evenly divided – 52% favor Biden, while 44% back Trump.
• Asian voters favor Biden (59%) over Trump (36%).

One other classification I had never seen before. It came from Emerson College.

Analysis of voter work hours reveals distinct candidate preferences. Non-workers are evenly split: 45% support Trump, 44% Biden. Those working 30 hours or less favor Biden over Trump (52% to 37%), while those in the 30-40 hour bracket are divided (45% Biden, 43% Trump). Trump gains support among those working 40-60 hours, with increasing margins as hours increase, peaking at 80% for those working over 60 hours, compared to 7%