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WSJ survey shows rise in support for Trump among Blacks and Hispanics, sharp decline in support for Biden

by | Apr 11, 2024

By Dave Andrusko

While we’ve written many stories about how support for pro-abortion President Joe Biden among voters of color has plummeted, an analysis published today in the Wall Street Journal shows us how drastic the decline actually is.

From “Biden Loses Support Among Black Men, WSJ Poll Finds New survey of seven battleground states also shows some Black women are weighing other options”:

More Black men said they plan to back Donald Trump this fall, according to a recent Wall Street Journal poll of seven swing states.

 

While most Black men said they intend to support Biden, some 30% of them in the poll said they were either definitely or probably going to vote for the former Republican president. There isn’t comparable WSJ swing-state polling from 2020, but Trump received votes from 12% of Black men nationwide that year, as recorded by AP VoteCast, a large poll of the electorate.

 

In the WSJ poll, 11% of Black women said they were either definitely or probably going to vote for Trump. In 2020, the AP poll found, 6% of Black women nationwide backed Trump.

Did you catch that? In 2020 Trump received the votes of 12% of Black men nationwideBy contrast in a 2024 poll 30% of Black men said, “they were either definitely or probably going to vote for the former Republican president.”

Ed Morrissey of HotAir pulls out several of the 7 swing states widely expected to determine who our next president will be for a closer examination.

One of the states in the WSJ survey is Wisconsin, a must-win state for Biden this time around. In 2020, exit polls showed Biden winning 92% of the black vote and 86% of the black male vote. If Biden has lost 30 points among black men and Trump has picked up 20 points, that may well spell the difference in a state that Biden only won by 0.6% in 2020. 

How about Pennsylvania which Biden won by a whisker?

Biden only won the Keystone State by 1.2% in 2020, and he did that by winning 92% of the overall black vote and 89% of the black male vote. Thirty-point shifts away from Biden among 11% of the electorate could easily wipe out that gap, even setting aside how Biden is likely losing turnout enthusiasm in other demos, thanks to his deep unpopularity and unfavorability since the Kabul bug-out.

Digging deeper into the WSJ survey, Morrissey writes “And all of this doesn’t even take into account Biden’s erosion among Hispanic voters.”

“It’s not just the men, either,” Morrissey explains. “Black women aren’t as enthusiastic about moving across the aisle for Trump, but almost half of those polled in these swing states aren’t buying Biden either.

Writing for the Wall Street Journal, Cameron McWhirter, Joe Barrett, and Joshua Jamerson elaborate.

In a sign that Biden hasn’t yet won commitments from many of these voters, some 42% of Black women in the survey fell into a group that the Journal pollsters say are up for grabs in the election, or still persuadable in their vote choice. These voters say they have not yet decided on a candidate, might vote for an independent or third-party option or are likely—but not certain—to back one of the major-party candidates.

 

While Latino women and Black men in the survey also signaled in large numbers that they remain persuadable in their vote choice, the share of Black women is noteworthy, given that they are among the most loyal Democratic groups in the electorate.

Finally, the trio of Wall Street Journal reporters asked for comments from the two campaigns:

An aide for the Biden campaign said its $25 million advertising campaign, announced in August to reach key voters in battleground states, included the largest and earliest investment in Black media for a re-election campaign in history.

 

A representative for the Trump campaign said: “Our coalition message to Black and Hispanic communities this election is simple: If you want strong borders, safe neighborhoods, rising wages, quality jobs, school choice and the return of the strongest economy in over 60 years, then vote for Donald J. Trump.”

More tomorrow.

Categories: Politics