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Closer look shows Trump with advantage in Pennsylvania for Keystone State’s 19 electoral votes

by | May 8, 2024

By Dave Andrusko

As we all know (although I am prone to forget), nationwide polling numbers are an important index of where the public is at a given point in time but what truly matters are the numbers for the individual states. This is  particularly the case with the seven swing states which will likely determine whether pro-abortion Joe Biden or pro-life Donald Trump is our next president.

Those “battleground states” are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada,  North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

David Strom, writing for Hot Air, begins by pointing out that “The RealClearPolitics polling average for Pennsylvania shows a razor-thin margin for President Trump.”

However, Strom emphasizes, the latest AARP poll shows former President Trump not only ahead by a larger margin than two points but also has been steadily building his advantage. He writes

The latest poll before this one ended April 29th, showing Trump up 2. In the head-to-head in AARP’s poll, Trump is up by four, which suggests that the state is moving out of reach for Biden. In a 4-way, Trump is up 5. Those aren’t small numbers in states that are battlegrounds. 

This, of course, does not prove that Trump has an insurmountable lead in the Keystone state.  We have six more months till the election. But…

“The internals of the poll are brutal for Biden,” Strom writes.

For example,

  • Trump’s 51% approval vs Biden’s 36% is just devastating for Biden, as is his -23% net approval as a person.
  • Trump’s personal and job-related approval ratings are significantly higher than Biden’s, suggesting that many people have not just rejected Biden but reassessed their opinion of Trump, who has net positive numbers regarding his job performance. This means that many people who don’t like him think highly of him as the Chief Executive. …
  • Biden’s net favorable with DEMOCRATS is only +40 while Trump’s with Republicans is net +70

Quotes taken directly from the poll of 1,398 likely voters

  • Trump’s recalled job approval is a net 30-points better than Biden’s. Additionally, voters 50+ approve of the job Trump did by 12-points
  • Trump is ahead in large part due to more consolidated support from Republicans than Biden is getting from Democrats, while Trump also has a slight edge with Independents.

And the all-important question: Are we headed in the right direction?

  • By a 3:1 margin, PA voters think the country is headed in the wrong direction. Nearly every major demographic says wrong direction.

Again, the obvious caveat: the election is not today but November 5. That notwithstanding, these are very encouraging results.

Categories: Polling