NRL News

Pro-abortion Biden losing Catholic vote

by | May 7, 2024

By Dave Andrusko

Before I get into a typically excellent column by Guy Benson, a quick but important note from Fox News. The topic is Catholic support for pro-abortion President Joe Biden and for pro-life former President Donald Trump. 

The latest is that according to Pew Research [], “if the election were held today,” 55% of Catholics would vote for former President Donald Trump. Conversely 43% of Catholics would vote for President Biden.

“The 12% margin of support in favor of Trump marks a significant shift from 2020, when he held an extremely narrow lead — 50% to 49%,” according to Timothy H.J. Nerozzi of Fox News.

But the uptick for Mr. Trump among Hispanics is even more pronounced. 

Biden currently leads among Hispanic Catholics with a narrow 49%-47% split, but the close contest marks a major shift rightward for the demographic. In 2020, a similar poll from Pew Research found Hispanic Catholics preferred Biden to Trump with a staggering 67%-26% split.

Over at Townhall, Benson writes about a recent analysis by the Brookings Institute that

demonstrates significant erosion within Joe Biden’s 2020 victory coalition, across multiple key demographics.  It cites “major shifts away from Biden have occurred among Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters. Surprisingly, Trump appears to have gained more ground among college-educated Black and Hispanic voters than with less educated members of these groups.  Equally surprising: Up to now, Trump has increased his support more among women than men.”  

Benson adds a very telling chart that hold even worse news for Biden:

Take a look at that chart.  Trump is eating into Biden’s margin among quite a few groups, including dramatic improvements within communities of color.  Based on these numbers, Trump has closed the gap by double-digit percentages among black voters (25 percentage points), Hispanics (13 points), and Asian-Americans (21 points).  Looking at the far right column, the two “best” numbers for Bidens are typos.  The chart shows a 13-point move toward Biden among 30-49 year olds (roughly Millennials) and a seven-point blue shift among Hispanics without college degrees.  In fact, the actual data shows each of those two cohorts moving Trump’s way by those margins.  In other words, there should be two more red bars on the graphic.  The Brookings analysis even flags Biden’s decreased standing among this second-to-youngest voting group:

Benson is right to add important caveats. Among them is that “Biden leads among the likeliest voters, while Trump will likely need unreliable and unregistered potential voters to participate in substantial numbers to erase that Biden advantage.”


More tomorrow.


Categories: Polling