By Dave Andrusko
A very interesting juxtaposition. Consider…
Yesterday, May 30, pro-life former President Donald Trump was convicted of 34 counts of falsification of business records in the first degree, which, in New York, is a felony. Mr. Trump vehemently denied the charges, vowed an appeal, and promised to soldier on undeterred. He will be sentenced on July 11, seven days after Independence Day, and four days before the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.
Just a few words about the trial. Writing in New York Magazine [no admirer of Mr. Trump]. Elie Honig observed
Most importantly, the DA’s charges against Trump push the outer boundaries of the law and due process. That’s not on the jury. That’s on the prosecutors who chose to bring the case and the judge who let it play out as it did. …
The charges against Trump are obscure, and nearly entirely unprecedented. In fact, no state prosecutor — in New York, or Wyoming, or anywhere — has ever charged federal election laws as a direct or predicate state crime, against anyone, for anything. None. Ever. Even putting aside the specifics of election law, the Manhattan DA itself almost never brings any case in which falsification of business records is the only charge.
Let’s juxtapose this with May 28, just two days before the verdict, when Politico, which loathes Mr. Trump, ran a story headlined “Dems in full-blown ‘freakout’ over Biden.”
The subhead to Christopher Cadelago, Sally Goldenberg, and Elena Schneider’s story was “One adviser to major Democratic donors keeps a running list of reasons Biden could lose.”
The first four paragraphs are filled with gloom and doom and set the table for the conclusion:
A pervasive sense of fear has settled in at the highest levels of the Democratic Party over President Joe Biden’s reelection prospects, even among officeholders and strategists who had previously expressed confidence about the coming battle with Donald Trump.
All year, Democrats had been on a joyless and exhausting grind through the 2024 election. But now, nearly five months from the election, anxiety has morphed into palpable trepidation, according to more than a dozen party leaders and operatives. And the gap between what Democrats will say on TV or in print, and what they’ll text their friends, has only grown as worries have surged about Biden’s prospects.
“You don’t want to be that guy who is on the record saying we’re doomed, or the campaign’s bad or Biden’s making mistakes. Nobody wants to be that guy,” said a Democratic operative in close touch with the White House and granted anonymity to speak freely.
But Biden’s stubbornly poor polling and the stakes of the election “are creating the freakout,” he said.
Okay, why? What’s changed? For starter, Democrats feel the most solid ground—heavily blue states—shifting. An Emerson College Polling/The Hill/PIX11 survey found Biden leading Trump 48 percent to 41 percent, with 12 percent undecided.
“Those numbers are notable given New York’s largely blue status,” Caroline Vakil of the Hill reported. “The Empire State voted for Biden over Trump by a much larger margin of 61 percent to 38 percent in 2020.” [Emphasis added.]
How about independents? “Independent voters in New York who traditionally vote for Democrats, according to exit polling, have flipped to lean toward Trump by a margin of ten points, 43% to 33%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
Back to Politico.
“Despite everything, Trump is running ahead of Biden in most battleground states,” Politico wrote. “He raised far more money in April, and the landscape may only become worse for Democrats.” …
“The concern has metastasized in recent days as Trump jaunted to some of the country’s most liberal territories, including New Jersey and New York, to woo Hispanic and Black voters as he boasted, improbably, that he would win in those areas.”
Trump “has already started his incursion into safe blue states,” according to Cadelago, Goldenberg, and Schneider. “His campaign’s psychological warfare in New York, California and New Jersey — where House districts will determine control of Congress’ lower chamber — is spiking Democrats’ already-elevated blood pressure.”
More on Monday. Have a great weekend.