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What do we know about the Presidential race 171 days out ?

by | May 17, 2024

By Dave Andrusko

“Swing states” are states that are competitive and likely will determine whether pro-life former President Donald Trump or pro-abortion President Joe Biden wins come November 5—17l days from today.

The Legacy Media, solidly in Biden’s corner, is tackling various explanations why Biden’s approval rating is barely 40% and why he is trailing in 5 of these 6 battleground states. Let’s look at some of the ways they describe Biden’s failure to engage with voters, with an emphasis on voter who cast their ballot for Biden in 2020 but don’t plan to in 2024.

Three New York Times reporters–Claire Cain Miller, Bianca Pallaro, and Ruth Igielnik—wrote a story that ran today which was headlined “They Supported Biden in 2020. What Made Them Change Their Minds in 2024?” The subhead was “In polls of swing state voters, 14 percent of those who said they voted for President Biden in 2020 said they weren’t backing him now.”

Fourteen percent! Yikes.

They interviewed these people once and “in follow-up interviews many poll respondents were engaged on certain issues”—issues all right-minded people should be on the right side of, e.g., “pro-choice” on abortion. However, wouldn’t you know it, “other issues had come to the fore and made them unhappy with how things were going — particularly inflation, immigration and foreign policy.”  The Times’s reporters write

They more often are young or Hispanic — groups that have historically voted for Democrats in large numbers, but are to some degree moving toward Republicans. (There are not major differences in the education level of voters who are sticking with Mr. Biden and those who aren’t.)

 

The surveys found fewer voters moving in the other direction: There were less than half as many Trump defectors in the swing states as there were Biden defectors.

What about desire for change? “Biden defectors were more likely than Biden supporters to say the country needs big, fundamental change,” Cain MillerPallaro, and Igielnik write.“‘All of our core values are gone, gone, and I’m just not pleased at all,’ said Amelia Earwood, 47, a safety trainer at the U.S. Postal Service in Georgia.”

Space allows only a few paragraphs about the shifts in voting patterns that threaten to disrupt the core of the Democratic coalition.

Yesterday, Ruy Teixeira published a fascinating piece titled “The Working Class-Sized Hole in Democratic Support Widens: This is a big, big problem.”  You really would enjoy his insights.

Teixeira begins by harkening back to a previous post he’d written:

Here is a simple truth: how working-class (noncollege) voters move will likely determine the outcome of the 2024 election. They will be the overwhelming majority of eligible voters (around two-thirds) and, even allowing for turnout patterns, only slightly less dominant among actual voters (around three-fifths). Moreover, in all six key swing states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—the working-class share of the electorate, both as eligible voters and as projected 2024 voters, will be higher than the national average.

It follows that significant deterioration in working-class support could put Biden in a very deep hole nationally and key states. Conversely, a burgeoning advantage among working-class voters would likely put Trump in a dominant position.

He cites the now famous New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll and goes through the battleground states. What did he find?

Across the battleground, Biden is losing to Trump among working-class voters by 16 points. That compares to Biden’s national working-class deficit of just 4 points in 2020.

There is a collection of other depressing news for the Biden campaign. That includes this reminder from Timothy Noah      :

For the past 100 years, no Democrat—with one exception—has ever entered the White House without winning a majority of the working-class vote, defined conventionally as those voters who possess a high school degree but no college degree. The exception was Joe Biden in 2020, under highly unusual circumstances (a badly-mismanaged Covid pandemic, an economy going haywire). It’s unlikely in the extreme that Biden can manage that trick a second time. He must win the working-class vote in 2024.

Teixeira’s analysis is very, very much worth reading, especially the conclusion that the Biden campaign is focusing on the issues that matter to the activists but not to working class America.

Categories: Politics