NRL News

Is Iowa a bellwether for the 2024 race for President?

by | Jun 19, 2024

By Dave Andrusko

Since pro-life former President Donald Trump carried Iowa by 8 points in his 2020 contest with pro-abortion President Joe Biden, you wouldn’t think that Trump being up in the polls in his rematch with Biden would be any surprise.

That is, unless the eight point advantage had ballooned to 18 points! “The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll of 632 likely voters shows Trump leading Biden 50% to 32%,” Cameron Arcand reported. “The survey included third-party candidates, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 9%”.

Arcand quoted pollster Frank Luntz who said the data should not be taken lightly.

“In 2020, Trump won Iowa by +8 points,” Luntz tweeted. “Now, Iowa’s best pollster shows him up +18 in the state — which is bad news for Biden in more competitive Midwestern states, like Wisconsin and Michigan.”


He noted that pollster’s “final poll in October had Trump up +7, and he won by +8.”

“If this poll holds, with Biden at 32%, it would be the worst Democrat showing in Iowa since the 1924 general election, one hundred years ago,” Karen Townsend reported.

Brianne Pfannenstiel reported for the Register on its poll which was taken June 9-14. Under the subhead “Biden approval rating continues ‘consistent decline,’” she wrote

As the candidates move into the general election season, Biden’s approval rating among all Iowans remains low at 28%. Another 67% disapprove of his performance as president, and 5% are not sure.  


That’s down a tick from the 29% approval he earned in February 2024 and his 30% showing in March 2023.  

One other interesting tidbit from Morning Consult which “is conducting thousands of surveys every day, asking registered U.S. voters in all 50 states if they approve or disapprove of President Joe Biden’s job performance. Every month, we’ll update this page with the latest tracking data”. Eli Yokley & Cameron Easley write

Biden’s net approval rating is underwater in 45 states: This marks a major shift from the start of his tenure, when voters in just 18 states were more likely to disapprove than approve of his job performance. The Biden administration’s messy withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan in August 2021 — punctuating a summer of rising prices and COVID-19 cases after the vaccine rollout — precipitated much of the decline in the president’s popularity from which he has yet to recover.

Categories: Politics