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Shocker: Biden’s Lead With Women Is Smaller Than Trump’s With Men

by | Jun 20, 2024

By Dave Andrusko

If you are pro-abortion President Joe Biden, you are (to put it mildly) unnerved by surveys that show your margins over pro-life former President Donald Trump among Blacks and  Hispanics shrinking from month to month. This is particularly worrisome in the battleground states which hold the key to winning in 2024.

Imagine the trepidation when they read Ruth Igielnik’s story today in the New York Times under the headline “Biden’s Lead With Women Is Smaller Than Trump’s With Men, a Warning for Democrats.”

A “warning?” You betcha. Igielnik begins

Almost every path to victory for President Biden relies on strong support from women. But his current standing among women is the weakest lead a Democrat has had since 2004, a key factor in how tight the race is.

Mr. Biden’s lead among women has slid to about eight percentage points since the 2020 election, according to an average of more than 30 polls conducted over the last six months and compiled by The New York Times. That’s down from a lead among women of about 13 percentage points four years ago.

Making this decline among women even more ominous is Trump’s strong support among men:

[S]ince the 2020 election, former President Donald J. Trump’s support among men has recovered and is back to the double-digit lead he had in 2016.

Republicans have generally held leads among men in most presidential elections going back decades. But every year that Democrats have won the presidency, they have led among women by more.

Among women, is there a particular demographic where Biden is falling short?

Mr. Biden’s drop in support has been particularly pronounced among Black and Hispanic women, according to a new set of polls focused on women across the country and in Arizona and Michigan from KFF, a nonprofit organization that focuses on health care research.

The size of the diminished support is hard to explain away:

Mr. Biden’s current struggles with Black and Hispanic women are especially striking. He is winning among Black women in the KFF survey by 58 percentage points, but that represents a significant drop from his 86 percentage point margin among Black women in the approach to the 2020 election, according to an average of New York Times/Siena College polls from that election. Mr. Biden’s lead with Hispanic women has also shrunk substantially, to about 12 points. The survey found Mr. Biden’s lead among women overall to be four points[Underlining added.]

What issue is most important to Black and Hispanic women? What you likely would expect: Inflation.

Inflation voters are more likely to be Black or Hispanic than women overall. They are more likely to be middle-aged. In Michigan, nearly 60 percent of Black women say inflation is the most important issue to their vote. A similar share of Hispanic women in Arizona say the same. For these women, inflation blows all other issues out of the water.

Democratic strategists “insist that traditionally Democratic constituencies, including women and Black voters, will return to Mr. Biden’s side as the race goes on,” Igielnik writes. “Once the campaign kicks into high gear, abortion will rally the women,” said Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster who has been studying women’s voting behavior for decades.”

 Yet there is no getting around the simple truth that voters feel they were better off under Mr. Trump than Mr. Biden.

“Overall, twice as many women say they were better off financially under Mr. Trump, the KFF surveys found,” according to Igielnik. “Young women, a key constituency that Democrats are hoping to retain this cycle, were nearly three times as likely to say things were better for them financially under Mr. Trump than Mr. Biden.”

More tomorrow.

Categories: Politics