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Trump leads in swing states, advancing in Virginia and Minnesota

by | Jun 10, 2024

By Dave Andrusko

It is perfectly understandable that the so-called “swing states”—highly competitive states where either party could win—would be the subject of immense interest to the political press. These seven states–Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Michigan, and Wisconsin—will determine, it is argued, the outcome November 5 between pro-life former President Donald Trump and pro-abortion President Joe Biden.

Biden is behind in all but one.

What has not received sufficient attention over the last month or two is captured in these two headlines: “Minnesota Poll: Biden leads Trump in Minnesota, but more independents leaning Trump”; “New Polls Make Virginia a ‘Toss-Up’ State in 2024 Election.”

Not so long ago Minnesota and Virginia were genuinely competitive states.  Far less so as we began 2024. But the rise of Mr. Trump’s numbers in both states suggest that what was not so long ago unimaginable has morphed into a real possibility this election cycle.

Television station KARE 11, MPR News, and the Star Tribune released the results of a poll today that was taken June 3-5 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy. Here’s Jeremiah Jacobsen’s lead:

“MINNEAPOLIS — The 2024 presidential election rematch is shaping up to be a close one across much of the country, and early voter sentiment in Minnesota appears to echo that trend.”

 

That new poll finds “incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden leading Republican former President Donald Trump among registered likely voters in Minnesota, with 44.5% of voters supporting Biden and 40.6% of voters supporting Trump,” he adds. “Activist and attorney Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., who is running an independent campaign after dropping out of the Democratic primary, is polling at 6.4% in Minnesota.”

 

Looking ahead to what promises to be a nail-biter, two numbers are particularly relevant. First there are the Independents. “Support among independent voters is where the race is still fluid,” Jacobsen writes. “Of the independent voters polled, 37.2% said they plan to vote for former President Trump, a more than 2-percent advantage over President Biden at 34.9%. Kennedy also factors into the independent vote, with 13% support. A significant number of independents, almost 12%, remain undecided.”

Second, and genuinely surprising is enthusiasm. Jacobsen writes

Supporters of former President Trump had the most enthusiasm for their candidate, with 61.5% of those who said they’ll vote for Trump, saying they’re “very enthusiastic” about their candidate. That’s compared to 30.9% of Biden voters saying they’re “very enthusiastic” for President Biden. 

A quick look at Virginia. Tom Bevan writes

The most interesting state is Virginia, where the Fox News poll shows the race tied at 48, and that is on the heels of a poll we talked about a couple of weeks ago. We’ve had two polls in the last three weeks out of Virginia, and they have both shown that race tied. Biden’s lead there now, in our average, is down to 2.2, and that includes two polls from December. We actually moved Virginia into the toss-up category based on those last two polls in our electoral college map. Biden’s still leading there, but his lead has shrunk to the point where it’s now just over 2%. That is in the range in which we declare state toss-ups. I know some disagree and hey, it’s five months out.

Carl Cannon had a bigger-picture assessment:

I’ve been saying on this show and in other places – where I’m usually thrown out by bouncers into the street on my ear – that there’s not six or seven swing states, there’s always 10 or 12. We just don’t know what they all are.

More tomorrow. See you then.

Categories: Donald Trump