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What do we know 146 days out from November 5 elections?

by | Jun 12, 2024

By Dave Andrusko

Every few days another poll drops showing pro-abortion President Joe Biden hemorrhaging support from still another demographic.

Under the headline “Biden’s approval rating continues to drop among Arab American voters, survey says,” Nargis Rahman reports.

A recent survey conducted by political advocacy group the Arab American Institute found that President Joe Biden’s disapproval rating has increased among Arab American voters.

According to the poll published in May
, less than 20% of Arab American voters support President Biden. That percentage is significantly less than the 60% of Arab American voters who chose Biden in 2020

It is, in fact, difficult to find any category of voters that hasn’t signaled its discontent.

Writing at National Review Online Noah Rothman cautions that “it is still a tight race” but goes on to list a trove of troubles ahead for President Biden beneath the “top-line numbers.”

#1. The effect of pro-life former President Trump’s conviction in a Manhattan courtroom is “not nothing, but it’s not much.”

The marginal impact Trump’s conviction has had in the race suggests its trajectory will soon revert back to the status quo that has previously defined it, and that dynamic favors Trump. But the CBS News/YouGov poll’s findings also suggest the possibility that the race for the White House may not be static for long. Beyond the top-line numbers in its latest survey, this poll also shows that voters are more likely to default to Trump than Biden as Election Day nears.

#2. That same poll is music to the Trump campaign’s ears:

In that poll, Trump maintains commanding margins among voters he needs — white voters without a college degree, seniors, and self-described Republicans — while holding his deficit among independents and women voters to single digits. With 18 percent support among African Americans, Trump continues to show surprising strength among core Democratic voting blocks.

#3. Many Americans rank Trump much higher on the “intangibles.” According to Rothman

To the tune of 67 percent, voters believe Trump has a “vision for the country,” whereas 51 percent said the same for Biden. Majorities believe Trump is “tough,” “energetic,” and “effective.” Shockingly few say the same for Biden. Trump beats Biden when voters are asked if either man is “competent” by 49 to 40 percent. And when voters are asked why they’re voting for either candidate, Joe Biden’s voters are more likely to say their ballot represents a negative verdict on Trump rather than an affirmation of Biden.

#4. And Biden is counting on the election being about Trump rather than his administration.

Most likely voters seem to have rejected the incumbent president’s effort to transform the race into a referendum on Trump. A majority say they are not voting for or against either candidate but strictly “comparing” the two. And when they directly compare the two candidates, voters break for Trump by what may end up becoming a prophetic 53 to 47 percent.

Rothman concludes

It is still prudent to avoid drawing conclusions about the outcome of this race five months out from the vote, but the Biden campaign will find it increasingly difficult to calm his disquieted allies. …

Moreover, the environmental factors that were supposed to hasten Trump’s self-destruction have failed to achieve that effect. Biden cannot passively await the arrival of conditions that will produce his reelection — he will have to engineer them. And Democrats seem to be losing faith
in Biden’s ability to shape events to his advantage.

Indeed, why wouldn’t they?

Stay tuned, more tomorrow.

Categories: Joe Biden
Tags: Joe Biden