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For now, fiery Biden and panicky Democratic caucus appear at a standoff

by | Jul 10, 2024

By Dave Andrusko

Each day the drama between the Democrat Party and pro-abortion Joe Biden, its (presumptive] presidential nominee, just grows and grows and grows.

Yesterday we wrote about the fiery letter Biden sent to congressional Democrats, daring them to bring it on. Biden declared that the party must not weaken in its resolve lest intraparty divisions get in the way of defeating pro-life former President Donald Trump. He wrote

“The question of how to move forward has been well-aired for over a week now. And it’s time for it to end. We have one job. And that is to beat Donald Trump. We have 42 days to the Democratic Convention and 119 days to the general election. Any weakening of resolve or lack of clarity about the task ahead only helps Trump and hurts us. It’s time to come together, move forward as a unified party, and defeat Donald Trump.” [Emphasis added.]

So what’s happened in the two days following Biden’s threatening letter? While a few more congressmen publicly expressed their conclusion that Biden must step aside, the  push may have already lost steam.

Nate Cohn of the New York Times writes

“The best that can be said for Mr. Biden is that the worst of the post-debate crisis might — might — be over. My colleagues on the Hill report that House and Senate Democrats did not reach consensus that might have encouraged party leaders to try to nudge Mr. Biden out of the election. Even skeptics like Jerry Nadler, who had reportedly told his colleagues that Mr. Biden should end his candidacy, appeared newly resigned to Mr. Biden’s renomination. And all of this follows a steady stream of Democrats who affirmed their support for Mr. Biden on Monday, including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.”

Cohn adds, “Months from now, it’s possible we’ll look back on the last 48 hours as a turning point for Mr. Biden — the moment when efforts to remove him were finally pushed aside, and when he and the Democrats got back to the task of trying to defeat Mr. Trump.”

But “while the worst might be in the rearview mirror, this challenging period for Mr. Biden seems far from over.”

Indeed! Consider the results of the latest Cook Political Report (CPR).

“As President Joe Biden digs in his heels at the top of the Democratic ticket, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted six swing states toward former president Donald Trump, with three — Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada — moving from ‘Toss Up’ to ‘Lean Republican,’” Thomas McKenna writes for National Review Online.

“The most important swing states in the race — Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — remain in the ‘Toss Up’ category. But three other states have moved toward Trump, going from ‘Likely Democratic’ to ‘Lean Democratic’— Minnesota, New Hampshire, and one of Nebraska’s three electoral votes. … If Trump won every state rated by CPR as at least ‘Lean Republican,’ he would be only two electoral college votes short of the 270 required to take the White House.”

Sort of death by a thousand cuts. But, of course, Biden has  plenty of other weaknesses as well.

To begin with, there is the issue the importance of which cannot be overstated: Biden’s age.

“Polls repeatedly show voters saying he’s too old to be effective,” Cohn writes. “His public appearances will be scrutinized as the latest test of his fitness; every utterance will have the potential to reopen the debate about the viability of his bid, starting with his ‘big boy’ news conference on Thursday. With so many Democrats pushed to the edge, another serious misstep could be enormously consequential.”

Speaking of polls, polls from The New York Times/Siena CollegeCNN/SSRS, and The Wall Street Journal “all showed Mr. Biden down at least six points nationally in the wake of the debate,” Cohn writes. “An AARP poll fielded by a highly regarded Democratic and Republican pollster found Mr. Trump up six points in Wisconsin when minor-party candidates were considered.”

Then there’s the Emerson College Poll [https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2024-national-poll-trump-46-biden-43].

“Since before the first presidential debate, former President Trump’s support remains at 46%, while President Biden’s support has decreased two percentage points,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Notable shifts away from Biden occurred among independent voters, who break for Trump 42% to 38%; last month they broke for Biden 43% to 41%.”

When they broke out voter motivation by race, age. and party, Emerson found 

  • 78% of Republicans are extremely motivated, compared to 65% of Democrats and 63% of independents.
  • 79% of white voters are extremely motivated to vote in this year’s presidential election, compared to 53% of Black voters and 49% of Hispanic voters. 
  • Generally, as age increases, so does the percentage of voters who say they are extremely motivated to vote: 39% of people ages 18 to 29 are “extremely” motivated to vote, 49% of 30 to 39-year-olds, 72% of 40 to 49-year-olds, 76% of 50 to 59-year-olds, 91% of 60 to 69-year-olds, and 83% of people ages 70 and older.

Circling back to Biden’s finger wagging at fellow Democrats, the Washington Post’s Philip Bump wrote

Biden insisted that he was the party’s nominee, which, barring a revolt at his party’s convention in August or a change of heart on his part, he will be. The president challenged other Democrats to launch an effort to supplant him at the top of the ticket; it is unlikely that any will.

 

It’s unlikely in part for the same reason no major contender emerged to challenge him in the primaries: No one wants to be the person who can be blamed for weakening the party before a general election matchup against Trump. But it’s also unlikely because there is not a massive groundswell of demand within the party’s base for a non-Biden candidate. [Emphasis added.]

Following a Tuesday meeting of the Democratic caucus where the support for Biden was muted, one wag wrote “No wonder Democrats describe the mood in their caucus this morning as funereal.”

One other horrible headline for Biden came from the NBC News:

‘There’s no way out’: Democrats feel powerless as ‘elites’ fall in line behind Biden

 

But by some accounts from Democrats at all levels, backing Biden felt more akin to a death march to November than a rousing backing for a party nominee.

Yikes.

 

Categories: Joe Biden