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Where do we stand 119 days out from the November 5 elections?

by | Jul 9, 2024

By Dave Andrusko

Nate Silver is the universally respected pollster and founder of the FiveThirtyEight website. His opinions carry weight. Earlier today he wrote this:

🕒 Last update: 12:45 p.m, Tuesday, July 9: It’s never a good idea to place too much emphasis on any one poll. But this bipartisan poll of Wisconsin for the AARP is potentially an exception, as it is probably the highest-quality poll in a swing state since the debate. It’s a bad one for Biden, showing him down 6 points. Wisconsin had been one of Biden’s better-polling states, but his chances of winning the must-win Badger State have fallen to 39 percent with the new poll added. The drip-drip-drip of polls like these could further erode Biden’s standing in our forecast.

Silver is correct in four ways. This is only one poll; however it’s a quality poll in a swing state—those that are competitive; Wisconsin had been one of Biden’s better-polling states; and finally it reflects an ongoing erosion of Biden’s support.

In our other examination of the state of the presidential race—”A defiant President Biden dares Democrats to come after him at the Convention”—we looked at the budding civil war within the Democrat Party. In a nutshell, Joe ain’t leaving and a growing number of Democrats are picking their poison: risk going with a candidate whose intellectual faculties are rapidly diminishing; or risk trying to force an angry Biden out which, in theory, would not be settled until the Democratic National Convention.

Meanwhile the underlying metrics remain terrible for Biden. His overall approval rating is at 39%-40% and on the all-important question of the Economy it’s at 39.8%.

However, his approval ratings are much lower on Inflation [35.2%]; Immigration [31.7%], Foreign Policy [34.3%]: and Crime [38%].

I believe one wit put it best:

In what promises to be a week of high political drama, the halls of Congress are buzzing with more anticipation than a season finale of “House of Cards.”

Categories: Politics