By Dave Andrusko
Even with the full-court press on for pro-abortion Vice President Kamala Harris, the idol of the legacy media, the numbers show the bloom may already be off the rose.
Her job approval numbers have always been in the 30s, lower even than pro-abortion President Joe Biden. But with her impending coronation as the Democrats’ presidential nominee, “Supposedly, Kamala Harris has ‘totally upended’ the race with The Anointment and the media’s rush to proclaim the advent of “Kamalot,” writes Ed Morrissey of Hotair.com.
Not so, not according to a new Harvard-Harris CAPS poll. ”Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris 52/48 with leaners, and 48/45 without,” Morrisey writes. “Harris has improved Joe Biden’s numbers on the latter, but not the former.”
Take a look at the numbers among Independents, always a key index.
Trump leads by six points without leaners — and six points with leaners. One has to wonder whether the sample tilts a bit toward the Dems based on those results plus the party loyalty numbers above. If so, Trump’s still scoring an outright majority over Harris, who’s attractiveness as a candidate is at its zenith before she’s forced to open her mouth about policy.
How about Trump’s support among women, the infamous gender gap? He only trails by four—44%/48%. But he’s ahead among men by a whopping twelve points. “Trump also wins an astounding 25% of the black vote and 44% of the Hispanic vote, which is slightly lower than in some other polling.”
What explains Trump’s great improvement? According to Morrissey
The issue set clearly favors Republicans now. The top three issues for respondents in this survey when asked in an open-ended manner are inflation (37%), immigration (33%), and the economy and jobs (27%). When asked to specify which single issue impacts respondents the most, 45% chose inflation and 14% chose immigration. Harris’ pet issue, abortion, comes in tied for third with crime at 10%. Except possibly on jobs, where the data has been surprisingly cheery this year, Harris has to play defense on the issues mattering most to voters in this cycle — and Harris is not talented at defense.
Most importantly, Morrissey writes, “voters have reconsidered Trump’s presidency in light of what followed it.” Asked “Do you approve or disapprove the job Donald Trump did as President, a total of 54% either strongly approved (35%)or somewhat approved (19%).
Morrissey concludes “At any rate, Harris may have upended something, but it’s not this race. It’s the assumptions of Trump as too flawed a candidate to beat a supposedly fresh and younger face — and that won’t improve as Harris gets more and more scrutiny as a candidate, either.”
Finally Nate Silver still finds Trump ahead:
Even after Democrats dramatically moved to re-top their presidential ticket and got an apparent jolt of momentum, famed election analyst and statistical guru Nate Silver still deems former President Donald Trump the favorite.
His election forecast model gives Trump a 61.3% chance of prevailing in the Electoral College, while Vice President Kamala Harris is at 38.1%.
Silver previously pegged Trump with a 65.7% chance of victory over President Biden during his model rollout last month.
