By Dave Andrusko
From Newsweek
Donald Trump is leading Kamala Harris in five of the seven key swing states which will prove vital in determining who wins the election, according to a poll.
A survey of likely voters in battleground states from AtlasIntel found that Trump is ahead in Michigan (50.6 percent to 47.2) and Pennsylvania (51 percent to 48.1).
AtlasIntel said the former president also has a “narrow” advantage in the toss-up states of Arizona (49.8 percent to 48.6), Georgia (49.6 percent to 49) and Wisconsin (49.7 percent to 48.2). Harris is leading in North Carolina (50.5 percent to 48.1) and Nevada (50.5 percent to 47.7).
A third example is perhaps most striking of all. It’s a transcript posted by Tim Hains of remarks made by NBC’s Steve Kornacki under the headline “Donald Trump’s Republican Party Has Made Huge Gains With Latino Voters.”
As summarized by Hains, “NBC elections analyst Steve Kornacki looks at new polling showing Latino voters trending away from the Democratic Party over the past 12 years — from a 41-point gap in 2012 to a 12-point gap today, Sunday on “Meet the Press.”
STEVE KORNACKI: We see every four years the Latino vote becomes a bigger and bigger share of the overall electorate. Well, among Latinos, our poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump 54% to 40%.
Now, for some context. This is a little bit better for Democrats than they were doing among Hispanics when Joe Biden was their candidate. But I think the bigger story here is historically. 54% to 40% now is a 14-point advantage for the Democrats. Take a look back at the last three presidential elections, and these were the results in the exit polls among Hispanic voters. That 14. Look at that cut there of almost 20 points less than just four years ago. And four years ago, we were saying Donald Trump had made inroads with Hispanic voters.
This suggests that that has continued apace. So what is driving this shift? Well, we see a few big gaps here. A gender gap. Familiar with this one, certainly. Men tied when it comes to this race. Women, a 26-point advantage. Again, among Hispanic voters here, there’s a gender gap, as we see with polls of overall voters.
Also, age is a big factor here. Look at this. Voters over 50, Hispanic voters over 50, almost a 60-point advantage for Harris, and she’s barely leading with Hispanic voters under 50. In fact, among men under 50, Donald Trump actually leads in our poll by 9 points, a 9-point advantage there, men under 50 for Trump. We also see an education divide. Again, we talk about this a lot when we’re talking about the overall pool of voters too. Men without four-year degrees, that’s now a double-digit Trump constituency in our poll. Men with degrees siding with Harris here, bigger margins among women, but we are seeing a bit of that education gap.
And we are seeing a religion gap here. Among Catholic Hispanics, 20 points for Harris. Protestant Hispanics, 26 points for Donald Trump.
Talking a little bit about the issues. “What’s the most important issue?” we asked in this poll. Abortion clocking in there. And – and Kamala Harris, big advantage, we see that. “Being competent and effective,” Kamala Harris leading there as well.
But then the biggies. These are the ones that Hispanic voters are saying are the most important to them. Economy, small advantage Trump. Inflation, nine-point advantage. And how about that? On the border and on immigration, Donald Trump with a double-digit advantage: 13 points in our poll. When asked, “Who would be better on this issue?” Hispanic voters are saying, “It’s Donald Trump.” And that is part of a broader shift here on basic attitudes among Hispanic voters toward immigration.
Look, when Donald Trump first ran in 2016, 69% of Hispanics said, “Immigration helps the country more than it hurts.” That’s come down to 62%. And the number who say it hurts more than helps, all the way up to 35%. There’s something bigger and broader going on here, and I think you can see it finally with this. We asked a basic question of Hispanic voters, “Which party do you more identify with?” 37% now say Republicans, 49% say Democrats.
But again, look at how this has shifted in just the last dozen years. In 2012, this was a 41-point advantage for the Democrats. It has come all the way down to 12 points, Kristen, a 29-point drop in terms of that gap there on – on which party Hispanics identify with in just 12 years.
And finally, there is this from Kaitlyn Buss. assistant editorial page editor at The Detroit News:
Democrats this election aren’t campaigning on the reality of the permissive, unregulated abortion environments they want. Rather they’re marketing falsehoods about abortion bans and sending pregnant women to jail to manipulate the narrative and scare women into voting for them.
With millions of dollars in outside campaign dollars going toward attacks against Republicans over their positions on nonexistent threats to abortion, Michigan Democrats have taken advantage of the U.S. Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision to force the issue before voters, motivate their base and pick up key independent voters.
Meanwhile, it allows them to ignore their own extreme records on abortion and other issues a majority of voters really care about, such as the cost of energy and groceries and the wide-open southern border.
More tomorrow.
