By Dave Andrusko
Maybe it’s intended to make sure pro-abortion Vice President Kamala Harris does not become overconfident or perhaps because they genuinely believe her candidacy is in trouble but for whatever reason The Hill published a story today by Alexander Bolton headlined “Democrats fear pollsters are undercounting Trump.”
Of course, there is plenty of history that shows pollsters often minimize the support the former President Donald Trump enjoys. And, of course, although eight years ago, the defeat of an overconfident Hillary Clinton is still fresh in Democrats’ minds. Plus 2024 is primed to be one of the closest elections in American history.
So it’s not surprising that Bolton begins his story by writing
Senate Democrats are worried pollsters are once again undercounting the Trump vote and say Vice President Harris’s slim lead in battleground states, especially Pennsylvania, is cause for serious concern.
After getting shocked by Hillary Clinton’s upset loss in 2016 and surprised by then-President Trump’s stronger-than-expected performance in 2020, Democratic lawmakers are bracing themselves for another election night surprise.
Of course, the Harris campaign hopes she “can overperform the polls herself by driving young voters and Black and Latino voters to the polls in big numbers, but acknowledge that whether a larger-than-expected pro-Harris coalition emerges is an untested hypothesis.” [Underlining added].
“Trump is within the margin of error in the most important battleground states, and he has a history of outperforming his polling averages, particularly in Midwestern states where his populist message appeals to blue-collar white voters,” Bolton reported.
He asked junior Senator John Fetterman (D-Pa.) if he was worried that Trump’s real strength is being missed. “Polling has really been seriously damaged since 2016,” Sen. Fetterman replied. “And that’s one of the truths, is that Trump is going to be tough in Pennsylvania, and that’s absolutely the truth.”
At first blush, you would think that the Harris forces believe it is her race to lose because she has had a tiny (but consistent) lead in “three crucial states that make up the ‘blue wall’: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.” But, according to Bolton, “Democratic lawmakers are growing nervous that their party may once again feel lulled into a false sense of optimism amid polls showing Harris” ahead.
Bolton focused on a truth that hasn’t been talked about enough. Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden “were doing better in the polls against Trump in 2016 and 2020, respectively, than Harris is performing right now.” Bolton quoted one unnamed senator who remarked, “That’s ominous. There’s no question that is concerning, but you’re working as hard as you can work, no matter what.”
Thus, it’s a combination of the traditional undercounting of Trump’s support added to the fact that his personal favorability ratings are much higher than they were in 2016 and 2020 that has Democrats on edge.
One other very important point about undercounting Trump’s real support.
“A New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll of likely voters in Pennsylvania conducted Sept. 11-16 showed Harris with a 4-point lead over Trump in the state,” Bolton wrote.
But Republicans argue that poll undersampled Trump voters. Only 37 percent of the poll’s respondents said they voted for Trump in the 2020 presidential election, well short of the 48.8 percent he won in the state four years ago.
“I used to think it was incompetence. Now I think it’s part of the strategy. They’re trying to drive down enthusiasm. Why are you going to vote for somebody if you think they’re going to lose? And they’re trying to drive down fundraising and donations,” said a GOP pollster who argued that some media organizations are biased against Trump. [Underlining added.]
Back with more tomorrow.