By Dave Andrusko
And six days until the night former President Donald Trump debates pro-abortion Vice President Kamala Harris at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia. The debate will be televised by ABC and moderated by hosts Linsey Davis and David Muir.
Things are popping, and I’ll try to discuss the most relevant factors going into what likely will be the only debate.
#1. If you believe USA Today’s Susan Page it’s all sweetness and light for Harris.
Harris is ahead in the national popular vote and has the wind at her back, aka “Harris voters now edge out Trump voters in terms of their level of excitement.” Page brushes off Trump’s advantage on key issues– handling the economy, immigration, and national security—while celebrating that Harris has a “big double-digit advantage over Trump” on “healthcare and race relations.” Which cluster of issues would you want to be in the lead on?
#2. Nat Silver, the hugely influential founder of FiveThirtyEight, has an extremely complicated method of predicting. As of Tuesday, he has Harris ahead in his polling averages but not in the forecast for who will win the presidency.
Why that is the case is even more complicated, but it is largely driven by “Comparatively poor polling for Harris in Pennsylvania, which is disproportionately important given Pennsylvania’s likelihood of being the pivotal state. As a result, the Electoral College forecast has swung more than the popular vote forecast.”
#3. If you’re a Harris supporter, like USA Today reporter Page, you cite a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll which shows “the biggest change among those with annual incomes of less than $20,000.”
“[A] three-point Trump edge over Biden in June has become a 23-point Harris advantage over Trump in August.” Hmmm. Doesn’t that colossal change seem just a little bit suspicious?
A poll was conducted for UnidosUS, the largest Latino advocacy group, by BSP Research, a Democratic polling firm “whose co-founder, Matt Baretto, also is a pollster for Harris.” Obviously, their results will be tilted. Yet “Just over half, 51%, of the English-speaking households support Harris, while Trump’s support among such households rises to 38%,” according to Suzanne Gamboa.
#4. What about younger men in general? The responses of Generation Z panics the New York Times but especially The Guardian.
The Guardian’s Steven Greenhouse bemoans “Young male voters are flocking to Trump.” While “among women under age 30, an overwhelming 67% plan to vote for Kamala Harris, while just 29% say they’ll back Donald Trump,” he writes, “But among young men, a majority – 53% – plan to vote for Trump, while 40% say they’ll support Harris, according to a New York Times/Sienna College poll. That’s an astonishing 51-percentage-point gender gap.”
Greenhouse says he readily understands why “so many young women favor Harris” but “I’m mystified why so many young men back Trump.” Of course, that’s not surprising. Greenhouse would be mystified why anyone supports the former President.
More tomorrow.