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12 days until the November 5 election. What do we know and what does it tell us?

Oct 24, 2024

By Dave Andrusko

Today’s look at the currents flowing that will determine whether former President Donald Trump or pro-abortion Vice President Kamala Harris is our next president will consist almost entire of an analysis by CNN data reporter Harry Enten “who broke down CNN polling aggregate numbers indicating Donald Trump is performing well among independent voters.”

Actually, a lot better than he was doing just a few months ago.

Real Clear Politics’ Tim Hains transcribed the entirety of Enten’s remarks.

HARRY ENTEN: Last time around, Joe Biden won these voters [Independents] by 11 points. In September of  2024, a month ago, Kamala Harris was up five points among independents. Now, though, she’s only up by two points among a key block in the center of the electorate, down nine points from where Biden was at the end of the 2020 campaign. Of course, this is a national picture.

Why is that perhaps misleading? Because we vote by state and because Democrats have such huge advantage is states like California and New York, they can win the popular vote but lose in the electoral college.

By the way, Trump has campaigned in both these states to help vulnerable Republican candidates and to cut into the overall margins Democrats win by. And Trump “will host a major rally at the Big Apple’s iconic Madison Square Garden later this month,” according to The New York Post.

“The event, which will be held at MSG’s legendary arena, is set to take place on Oct. 27, nine days before Election Day, sources said.”

Enten went on

What is going on in those key battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the Great Lakes, that “blue wall” right? Joe Biden last time around won them by five points over Donald Trump. Look at where we are today. This is the type of movement Donald Trump likes to see in the center of the electorate — up by a point. Now, of course, that’s well within any margin of error, but again, it’s the movement, it is the trends we’re looking at.

 

When you flip a group from being plus five Biden to now plus one Trump, that’s the type of movement Donald Trump loves to see, and it’s the type of movement that I think gives Democrats some agitation. You saw it nationally, and you see it in the blue wall states.

How important is it that a candidate wins Independents?

Are independents determinative of who wins the election? Usually the way independents go, so goes the nation. So candidates who won independents in elections since 1952, look at this, have often won the election—15 times, in fact—while only three have lost despite winning independents.

 

So it is possible to lose independents and win the election, but the bottom line is it’s only happened three times– Nixon in 1968, Ford in 1976, and Kerry in 2004. Normally, when you win independents, it’s a very good sign for your chances of winning the election.

One other key point that helps to explain why Harris is losing Independents. Enten says that 48% of Independents see Harris as too liberal [38% said Biden was too liberal back in 2020] versus 40% who say Trump is too conservative.

More tomorrow.

Categories: Politics