By Dave Andrusko
If you haven’t had a chance to look at the piece I wrote about last night’s interview of pro-abortion Vice President Kamala Harris, you might want to read my assessment of the first rate job Fox News’s Bret Baier did in spite of some crafty tactics the Harris team employed.
Lots to talk about today. As has been the case for a while, Harris is ahead by a point or two nationwide while former President Donald Trump is ahead by the slimmest of margins in six of the seven battleground states. The one new nationwide poll—Fox News—has Trump up 50-48.
It’s intriguing to see the difference between the candidates in 2024—dead even—and what the surveys showed on this day in 2016 (Clinton was up by 7.0) and 2020 (Biden was ahead by 9 points).
Let’s look at some important insights from reporters. Natalie Allison reports for Politico on some gains Trump has made with Blacks in Georgia:
Months of public polling showing some Black men moving toward Donald Trump is part of the reason the former president appears stronger in Georgia than this time four years ago.
In 2020, Trump lost by .3%–a third of a point—or about 13,000 votes.
Allison notes that
Across the state, 24,000 Georgia Republican primary voters cast ballots in the spring of 2020 but didn’t vote in the November election.
Allysia Finley, writing for the Wall Street Journal, explains “Why a Former Democrat Stumped for Trump in Coachella” California.
“The Democratic Party has taken all of us—and especially we Latinos and Latinas—for granted,” Ms. Gloria Romero said. “Inflation, lawlessness, and an open border, highest unemployment rate—second in the nation—groceries, gas, you name it.”
The story explains how she—”a self-described former progressive”—came to “become an ardent Trump supporter.” It’s worth a read.
Allison concludes
Ms. Harris tried to appeal to Latino voters in a Univision town hall last week by calling Mr. Trump a danger to democracy. Many seem unconvinced. Four years ago, Latinos nationwide favored Mr. Biden by 33 points. Recent polls show Ms. Harris’s lead in single digits. Some Republicans want to restrict legal immigration because they think Latinos are destined to become Democratic voters. Don’t be so sure.
I saw former President Bill Clinton’s one-time pollster Doug Schoen when he appeared on the Laura Ingraham show. He “raised alarm Wednesday on Fox News about Vice President Kamala Harris’s ability to maintain Democratic strongholds in the upcoming elections,” Mariane Angela reported.
“It’s, in fact, Laura, you’re absolutely right, a very bad sign. I’m picking up from my Democratic friends and sources precisely what you’re reporting. The so-called blue wall of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania is eroding for the Democrats,” Schoen told Ingraham. “There is a level of disorganization on the ground and incoherence vis-à-vis the messaging that is clear.”
One other important additional insight, this time from Kimberley A. Strassel under the headline “Unraveling the Presidential Election Fundamentals.”
For our purposes, I’ll just include the headlines and a sentence or two from “The Trump upside”:
“Voter Identification. More voters are calling themselves Republicans than Democrats for the first time in a long time.”
“Voter Registration. GOP voter registration nationwide has grown by 1.2 million since 2022; Democratic registration is down 800,000.”
“Core demographics. Polls consistently show the Harris campaign is struggling with core Democratic voting groups, Just one example: The most recent New York Times/Siena poll shows her nabbing about 78% of black voter support, down from the 90% average of recent Democratic presidential candidates.”
There’s much more, including some advantages for Harris. We may take a second look tomorrow.