By Dave Andrusko
This will be long post but there is a lot going on in the battle between former President Donald Trump and pro-abortion Vice President Kamala Harris. We’ll address four aspects.
First, let’s start with a post from Axios whose pro-Democrat sympathies are obvious. (FYI, the so-called Blue Wall is critical to Harris’s chances.”)
The headline to Mike Allen’s and Jim VandeHei’s story is “Behind the Curtain: Dems’ Blue Wall blues”. The lead paragraphs are not going to be received well by the Harris folks:
Top Democratic politicians and operatives tell us the vital states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are getting tougher for Vice President Harris and the party’s Senate candidates.
Harris is depending on that Blue Wall to win the White House, even if she struggles in the Sunbelt. On private calls, some top Harris allies are saying they believe the race will come down to Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Why it matters: There’s growing worry among Democrats that Harris seems stuck, even sliding a bit, after a strong start to her young presidential campaign. Her media blitz, heavy spending and largely favorable coverage don’t seem to be moving the needle much, if at all, these Democrats say.
The big picture: Pennsylvania is arguably the most important state on the map for Harris. Tell us who wins Pennsylvania, and we can tell you who’s very likely to be president-elect. Harris, former President Trump and their allies plan to spend $350 million on TV ads in Pennsylvania — $142 million more than the next closest state, Michigan, the N.Y. Times reports.
Axios interviewed David Axelrod, the operative behind Barack Obama’s 2008 victory, who said Harris “made steady, incremental progress in the 10 days after the [Sept. 10] debate, but now the race has plateaued.”
Second, the amusing spin put on a survey that found that “More Americans see Harris than Trump as very ideological”. By any objective measure, she is far Left.
So how does Philip Bump explain that? Bump’s last paragraph reads
Democrats identify themselves as liberal and moderate and see their candidate as liberal or moderate. Republicans identify themselves as conservative and see their candidate as conservative. But presumably in part because Trump has already shifted “conservatism” to the right, his ideology is seen as less fervent than his opponent’s overall.
Well, okay Mr. Bump. But perceptions aside, is Harris objectively more ideological than Trump? “In 2019, GovTrack, a non-partisan organization that tracks bills in Congress, ranked Harris as the ‘most liberal compared to All Senators,’” according to CNN.
“An archived version of the GovTrack Report Card for 2019 ranked then-California Sen. Harris as the ‘most politically left,’” according to CheckYourFact.
“In 2020, she was ranked second most politically left behind Democratic Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.”
Third, the results from the latest Quinnipiac University presidential election poll [https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3909]. Part of a long headline is “Blue Wall Shows Cracks As Race Tightens, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds.” But the good news for Trump is not confined to fissures in the Blue Wall.
The Quinnipiac University survey of battleground states “found Trump with 50% support in Michigan, compared to Harris’s 47%, and 2% breaking for other candidates,” Ben Whedon reported. “In Wisconsin, Trump led with 48% support to Harris’s 46% and 2% backing someone else. He remained behind in Pennsylvania, where Harris led with 49% to his 46%. Again, 2% backed other candidates.”
Looking at two Southern states, Quinnipiac University found
GEORGIA: Trump 50%, Harris 44%, other candidates 3%
NORTH CAROLINA: Trump 49%, Harris 47%, other candidates 2%
“On issues, as the presidential horse race thunders toward November 5th, Harris confronts a troubling Trump trifecta: he leads her on the economy and immigration and has the edge when it comes to who would best handle a national crisis,” according to Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
Fourth and finally, “Political analyst Mark Halperin said this week that both Democrats and Republicans believe former President Trump’s chances of winning the election are looking strong after seeing recent private polling data,” Gabriel Hays reported.
“Appearing on a livestream on his media platform 2WAY, Halperin said people on both sides of the political aisle familiar with the polls have told him they’ve seen Vice President Kamala Harris’ electoral prospects slip, and that they’re leaning towards a Trump victory being in the cards.
“‘In the conversations I’m having with Trump people and Democrats with data, they are extremely bullish on Trump’s chances in the last 48 hours. Extremely bullish,’” Halperin said.
“‘What’s happening now with Kamala Harris is, this is an experiment. Can you win a short campaign with an untested candidate? And what I’m telling you is happening in private polling is she’s got a problem now, okay? It’s not cheering for Trump. It’s not predicting Trump will win. She’s got a problem,’” Halperin said.
More tomorrow.
