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28 days until the November 5 elections. What do we know and what does that tell us?

Oct 8, 2024

By Dave Andrusko

HotAir’s David Strom this morning was bullish on former President Donald Trump’s chances to prevail over pro-abortion Vice President Kamala Harris. He offers lot of data but the most telling is how the 2024 polls compare with 2016—when Trump won—and with 2020–when he lost.

Strom thinks the most basic explanation for Trump’s weekend jump at Polymarket (a betting market) from basically being tied with Harris to having a nine point advantage is “a belief that, as in 2016 and 2020, the pollsters are undercounting Trump voters by a large margin.” He adds, “If you compare the Biden 2020 numbers to Harris’ 2024, her polling looks terrible. Trump barely lost the 2020 election, and he is polling 7.6% better this time around compared to that election, and over 4 points better in the battlegrounds.”

Then there’s Harris interview with 60 Minutes’s Bill Whitaker. Since the remainder of her “tough interviews” are with ABC’s The View [which took place this morning], the Howard Stern Sirius/XM show, and CBS’ Late Show with Stephen Colbert, this was the last hurtle before being embraced by the likes of Whoopi Goldberg and Joy Behar.

And I would be lying if I said anticipated any tough questions from Whitaker. I was wrong. In the most polite manner possible, he asked the same question more than once [three times, come to think of it] since Harris’s answers, as per usual, made no sense. In one exchange, Whitaker ran off the list of the most damaging charges leveled again Harris—which was about flipping her positions– and asked for her response.

Which was?

I believe in building consensus. We are a diverse people, geographically, regionally, in terms of where we are in our backgrounds. And what the American people do want is we have leaders who can build consensus.”

Which prompted Nick Arama to remark 

Huh? What does that mean and how does that explain her flipping her positions on everything? That’s not an answer. She still doesn’t say what she believes

Arama also noticed something that caught my attention:

Did you notice something else too? At 45 seconds, there’s a big edit. Was there something more there to that answer? Was it an even more incomprehensible word salad? Or did she say something even worse that they took out? 

One other data point, courtesy of Duane Patterson:

In the Battleground states, Donald Trump is either tied or up a tenth or two in the RCP Battleground averages, but in the all-important individual swing state polls, Trump has maintained a fairly comfortable lead in Arizona, leading, albeit within margin of error in Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada. Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley indicated their internals, and you should take that with the appropriate grain of salt, show a possible November map that looks like this. 

Admittedly, this “palette” come from RNC Chairman Whatley which is optimistic. I would caution you, however, that as we approach November 5, the Legacy Media will stop at nothing to persuade you the race is Harris’s to lose.

Don’t believe them for a moment.

Addendum

Reuters Jason Lange wrote that the race is tightening.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris led Republican Donald Trump by a marginal three percentage points – 46% to 43% – as the two remain locked in a close race to win the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll. …

Respondents rated the economy as the top issue facing the country, and some 44% said Trump had the better approach on addressing the “cost of living,” compared to 38% who picked Harris.

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