By Dave Andrusko
Weâve followed the movement of Hispanics out of the Democrat column for years. The shift is unmistakable and a new NBC News poll and another powerful analysis by Ruy Teixeira provide the numbers and some explanations. In a moment, weâll dissect Teixeiraâs column âThe Democratsâ Hispanic Voter Problem Deepens: It really is getting worse.â
First there is NBC Newsâs âPoll: Democrats’ advantage with Latino voters continues to shrink,â written by  Nicole Acevedo and Mark Murray.
The subhead lays it out: âHarris leads Trump nationally among Latinos, 54% to 40%, but Democratsâ edge is at its lowest level in the last four presidential cycles.â
They write of the findings of the NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC survey that
While Harrisâ 14-point advantage is an improvement from President Joe Bidenâs standing when he was at the top of the ticket, it is still lower than the past leads Democratic presidential candidates enjoyed in 2012 (by 39 points), 2016 (50 points) and 2020 (36 points), according to NBCâs merged polling data from those past cycles.
What is Acevedoâs and Murrayâs explanation?
Driving the declining support for Democrats in the presidential contest are defections from Latino men, particularly those without college degrees and those under the age of 50, the poll shows. But solid Democratic support from Hispanic women, or Latinas, has helped offset some of that erosion.
How about which party Hispanicâs want to be in charge of Congress?
In the battle for control of Congress, Democrats hold a double-digit lead in congressional preference â but itâs down from past election cycles.
In this poll, 54% of Latino voters prefer a Democratic-Â Â controlled Congress, versus 42% who want Republicans in charge.
But look at the pattern:
That 12-point lead represents a steady decline from September 2012 (when the Democratsâ advantage was 45 points), September 2016 (when it was 34 points), October 2020 (26 points) and September 2022 before that midterm election (21 points).
In the interest of time, weâll look at just two of 13 data points Ruy Teixeira examines to judge âwhether the rightward drift of Hispanics is continuingâ before jumping to his conclusion.
4. A strong working-class Hispanic shift is consistent with detailed precinct-level analysis of the 2020 vote in Hispanic (and Asian) neighborhoods released by The New York Times in December of 2020. And a just-released analysis of precinct voting in Philadelphia by The Philadelphia Inquirer shows a stunning 75 percent net increase in the vote for Trump in working- class Hispanic precincts between 2016 and 2020.
5. The latest data indicate that the Democratic margin among Hispanics is continuing to fall this cycle. Cook Political Report maintains a database of crosstabs from high quality surveys and finds the average margin for Harris among Hispanics to be around 12 points. Thatâs an 11-point drop from Bidenâs 23-point margin among Hispanics in 2020 (which in turn was a 16-point drop from Clintonâs advantage in 2016).
Teixeiraâs conclusion?
The times they are a-changinâ! While we are still far   away from Democrats losing majority support among Hispanics, the signs of a continuing rightward shift among these voters are unmistakable. Combined with general deterioration among working-class voters of all races, it appears Democrats, win or lose in this election, are in urgent need of a new theory of the case for growing their coalition.
More on Monday. Have a great weekend.
