By Dave Andrusko
Nate Cohn is described as the “chief political analyst for ‘The Upshot’ at The New York Times.” As best as I can tell, he’s a straight shooter.
He’s reporting today on one aspect of the results from the latest New York Times/Siena poll: control of the Senate.
The headline and subhead read, “Why Democratic Senate Control Seems to Be Slipping Away: A Times/Siena poll shows Jon Tester behind by seven points in Montana, while Colin Allred trails Ted Cruz by four in Texas.”
This post will be short because I’d like you to read his analysis. As of now, Democrats hold a 51-49 lead.
First, everyone agrees West Virginia will replace the retiring Sen. Joe Manchin with Republican Gov. Jim Justice. Second, the tread in Montana is ominous for Democrats and potentially troublesome in Ohio. Cohn writes
Tim Sheehy, a Republican, leads the longtime Democratic incumbent, Jon Tester, by seven percentage points, 52 percent to 44 percent (figures rounded).
Before today, Democrats led nearly every Times/Siena poll of the contested Senate races for months, including in Ohio — where Sherrod Brown led by four points in a state Donald J. Trump won by eight four years ago.
A positive Montana result for Democrats would have kept that string going, giving them a path to Senate control. They didn’t get it.
Third, Cohn mentions two states where Democrats have a chance to flip: Nebraska—Republican Sen. Deb Fischer— and Texas—Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. He writes
Still, Mr. Cruz’s four-point lead over Colin Allred — which is in line with other polling — seems close to robust given that the state will probably vote for Mr. Trump in November. And from a financial standpoint, a serious effort to contest the state would cost Democrats hundreds of millions. Perhaps that’s what Democrats should have committed to in a plausibly winnable state, but instead Republicans have outspent the Democrats in Texas so far.
Take a few minutes and read Cohn’s insightful column.
